全球变化知识资源中心

Background Anthropogenic changes in the climate and environment have globally affected ecological processes such that the spatiotemporal occurrence of the main annual cycle events (i.e., breeding, wintering, moulting, and migration) has shifted in migratory birds. Variation in arrival timing at migratory destinations can be proximately caused by an altered start of migration, total migration distance, and/or total speed of migration. Quantifying the relative contributions of these causes is important because this will indicate the mechanisms whereby birds could potentially adjust their annual cycle in response to global change. However, we have relatively little quantitative information about how each of these factors contributes to variation in arrival timing. My main aims are to estimate how arrival timing is correlated with variation in the start of migration and the total migration distance and how the total speed of migration may change with the total migration distance and body mass in a comprehensive analysis including multiple species. Methods For this purpose, I considered individual tracks covering complete migrations from multiple species and distinguished between within- and between-species effects. Results Assuming that the within- and between-species effects quantified under this approach agree with the effects acting at the individual level, starting migration one day later or increasing the total migration distance by 1000 km would result in later arrival timing by 0.4-0.8 days or 2-5 days, respectively. The generality with which the start of migration is correlated with arrival timing within species suggests that this is the general biological mechanism regulating arrival timing, rather than the total migration distance. The total speed of migration was positively correlated with the total migration distance but not with the bird's body mass. Conclusions As the start of migration is endogenously controlled and/or affected by hatching date, directional selection can probably act on existing within-species/within-population variation to alter arrival timing. This factor and the importance of variation in the start of migration for arrival timing suggest that migratory species/populations in which there is sufficient variation in the start of migration and transgenerational processes affect the corresponding timing may present an advantage over others in coping with anthropogenic-induced global changes.