globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0118196
论文题名:
Hurricane Risk Variability along the Gulf of Mexico Coastline
作者: Jill C. Trepanier; Kelsey N. Ellis; Clay S. Tucker
刊名: PLOS ONE
ISSN: 1932-6203
出版年: 2015
发表日期: 2015-3-13
卷: 10, 期:3
英文关键词: Hurricanes ; Wind ; Gulf of Mexico ; Storms ; Tornadoes ; Surface temperature ; Spatial autocorrelation ; Modifiable areal unit problem
英文摘要: Hurricane risk characteristics are examined across the U. S. Gulf of Mexico coastline using a hexagonal tessellation. Using an extreme value model, parameters are collected representing the rate or λ (frequency), the scale or σ (range), and the shape or ξ (intensity) of the extreme wind distribution. These latent parameters and the 30-year return level are visualized across the grid. The greatest 30-year return levels are located toward the center of the Gulf of Mexico, and for inland locations, along the borders of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Using a geographically weighted regression model, the relationship of these parameters to sea surface temperature (SST) is found to assess sensitivity to change. It is shown that as SSTs increase near the coast, the frequency of hurricanes in these grids decrease significantly. This reinforces the importance of SST in areas of likely tropical cyclogenesis in determining the number of hurricanes near the coast, along with SSTs along the lifespan of the storm, rather than simply local SST. The range of hurricane wind speeds experienced near Florida is shown to increase with increasing SSTs (insignificant), suggesting that increased temperatures may allow hurricanes to maintain their strength as they pass over the Florida peninsula. The modifiable areal unit problem is assessed using multiple grid sizes. Moran’s I and the local statistic G are calculated to examine spatial autocorrelation in the parameters. This research opens up future questions regarding rapid intensification and decay close to the coast and the relationship to changing SSTs.
URL: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0118196
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被引频次[WOS]:13   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/14559
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建
影响、适应和脆弱性
科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
全球变化的国际研究计划
气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Department of Geography and Anthropology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, United States of America

Recommended Citation:
Jill C. Trepanier,Kelsey N. Ellis,Clay S. Tucker. Hurricane Risk Variability along the Gulf of Mexico Coastline[J]. PLOS ONE,2015-01-01,10(3)
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