globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.24850/j-tyca-2019-05-03
WOS记录号: WOS:000485659500003
论文题名:
Fitting with moments L of the non-stationary distributions GVE(1) and GVE(2) to PMD series
作者: Francisco Campos-Aranda, Daniel
通讯作者: Francisco Campos-Aranda, Daniel
刊名: TECNOLOGIA Y CIENCIAS DEL AGUA
ISSN: 0187-8336
EISSN: 2007-2422
出版年: 2019
卷: 10, 期:5, 页码:75-105
语种: 英语
英文关键词: L moments ; GVE distribution ; standard error of fit ; linear regression ; parabolic regression ; determinants ; multiple linear regression
WOS关键词: FREQUENCY-ANALYSIS ; MODEL
WOS学科分类: Engineering, Civil ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Engineering ; Water Resources
英文摘要:

Design floods allow the hydrological sizing of hydraulic works. When hydrometric data is not available, design floods are estimated using hydrological methods that are based on design rains. The most common records used to estimate design rains are the annual maximum daily precipitations (PMD), this, due to the scarcity of rainfall recorder stations. The impacts of climate change and/or the alteration of the geographic environment of rain-gauge stations cause PMD records to show trends and therefore these records become non-stationary. In order to estimate predictions of low probability of exceedance a probabilistic analysis of the non-stationary PMD records can be performed. A simple approach without computational difficulties is based on the extension of the method of L moments applied to the general distribution of extreme values (GVE) with its location parameter (u) variable with time (t) in years, which is entered as a covariate. When the trend in the PMD register is linear, the probabilistic model GVE(1) is applied in which u(t) = mu(0) + mu(1).t and when the trend is curve the model GVE(2) with ut = mu(0) + mu(1).t + mu(2).t(2) is used. Thus, the GVE(1) distribution has four fit parameters (mu(0), mu(1), a, k) and five for the GVE(2) distribution (mu(0), mu(1), mu(2), a, k). Four numerical applications are described and the analysis of their results shows the simplicity of the extension of the L moments method and its versatility to estimate predictions within the historical record and to the future.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/146185
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: Univ Autonoma San Luis Potosi, San Luis Potosi, Slp, Mexico

Recommended Citation:
Francisco Campos-Aranda, Daniel. Fitting with moments L of the non-stationary distributions GVE(1) and GVE(2) to PMD series[J]. TECNOLOGIA Y CIENCIAS DEL AGUA,2019-01-01,10(5):75-105
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