globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1111/oik.06146
WOS ID: WOS:000483708700011
Anthropogenic disturbance in a changing environment: modelling lifetime reproductive success to predict the consequences of multiple stressors on a migratory population
Author: Pirotta, Enrico1,2; Mangel, Marc3,4; Costa, Daniel P.5; Goldbogen, Jeremy6; Harwood, John7; Hin, Vincent8; Irvine, Ladd M.; Mate, Bruce R.9,10; McHuron, Elizabeth A.11,12; Palacios, Daniel M.9,10; Schwarz, Lisa K.11; New, Leslie1
Corresponding Author: Pirotta, Enrico
Source Publication: OIKOS
ISSN: 0030-1299
EISSN: 1600-0706
Publishing Year: 2019
Volume: 128, Issue:9, Pages:1340-1357
Language: 英语
Keyword: climate change ; dynamic state variable modelling ; marine mammals ; population consequences of disturbance ; synergistic effects ; vital rates
WOS Category: Ecology
WOS Research Area: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
English Abstract:

Animals make behavioural and reproductive decisions that maximise their lifetime reproductive success, and thus their fitness, in light of periodic and stochastic variability of the environment. Modelling the variation of an individual's energy levels formalises this tradeoff and helps to quantify the population-level consequences of stressors (e.g. disturbance from human activities and environmental change) that can affect behaviour or physiology. In this study, we develop a dynamic state variable model for the spatially explicit behaviour, physiology and reproduction of a female, long-lived, migratory marine vertebrate. The model can be used to investigate the spatio-temporal patterns of behaviour and reproduction that allow an individual to maximise its overall reproductive output. We parametrised the model for eastern North Pacific blue whales Balaenoptera musculus, and used it to predict the effects of changing environmental conditions and increasing human disturbance on the population's vital rates. In baseline conditions, the model output had high fidelity to observed energy dynamics, movement patterns and reproductive strategies. Simulated scenarios suggested that environmental changes could have severe consequences on the population's vital rates, but that individuals could tolerate high levels of anthropogenic disturbance. However, this ability depended on where, when and how often disturbance occurred. In scenarios with both environmental change and anthropogenic disturbance, synergistic interactions caused stronger effects than in isolation. In general, larger body size offered a buffer against stochasticity and disturbance, and, consequently, we predicted juveniles to be more susceptible to disturbance. We also predicted that females prioritise their own survival at the expense of the current reproductive attempt, presumably the result of their long lifespan. Our approach provides a general framework to make predictions of the cumulative and synergistic effects of human disturbance and climate change on migratory populations, which can inform effective management and conservation efforts.

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Document Type: 期刊论文
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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Affiliation: 1.Washington State Univ, Dept Math & Stat, Vancouver, WA 98686 USA
2.Univ Coll Cork, Sch Biol Earth & Environm Sci, Cork, Ireland
3.Univ Bergen, Dept Biol, Bergen, Norway
4.Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Dept Appl Math, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA
5.Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA
6.Stanford Univ, Hopkins Marine Stn, Dept Biol, Pacific Grove, CA 93950 USA
7.Univ St Andrews, Ctr Res Ecol & Environm Modelling, St Andrews, Fife, Scotland
8.Univ Amsterdam, Inst Biodivers & Ecosyst Dynam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
9.Oregon State Univ, Marine Mammal Inst, Newport, OR USA
10.Oregon State Univ, Dept Fisheries & Wildlife, Newport, OR USA
11.Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Inst Marine Sci, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA
12.Univ Washington, Joint Inst Study Atmosphere & Ocean, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

Recommended Citation:
Pirotta, Enrico,Mangel, Marc,Costa, Daniel P.,et al. Anthropogenic disturbance in a changing environment: modelling lifetime reproductive success to predict the consequences of multiple stressors on a migratory population[J]. OIKOS,2019-01-01,128(9):1340-1357
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