globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1016/j.eja.2019.125915
WOS记录号: WOS:000479026000009
论文题名:
Adapting irrigated and rainfed wheat to climate change in semi-arid environments: Management, breeding options and land use change
作者: Hernandez-Ochoa, Ixchel M.1; Luz Pequeno, Diego Notello2; Reynolds, Matthew2; Babar, Md Ali5; Sonder, Kai2; Molero Milan, Anabel2; Hoogenboom, Gerrit3; Robertson, Ricky4; Gerber, Stefan5; Rowland, Diane L.6; Fraisse, Clyde W.1; Asseng, Senthold1
通讯作者: Asseng, Senthold
刊名: EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGRONOMY
ISSN: 1161-0301
EISSN: 1873-7331
出版年: 2019
卷: 109
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Triticum ; Crop model ensemble ; Uncertainty
WOS关键词: HEAT TOLERANCE ; PHYSIOLOGICAL TRAITS ; WARM ENVIRONMENTS ; CROPPING SYSTEMS ; STEM ELONGATION ; USE EFFICIENCY ; FOOD SECURITY ; IMPROVE YIELD ; CHANGE IMPACT ; ELEVATED CO2
WOS学科分类: Agronomy
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
英文摘要:

Mexico's 3.3 million tons current wheat production is projected to decline due to climate change. To counteract these negative impacts, we explored a range of plausible adaptation measures including change in crop management (early sowing and nitrogen fertilizer applications), crop genetic traits (early vigor, late flowering and heat tolerance) and wheat growing area expansion. Adaptation measures were simulated individually and in various combinations with a multi-crop model and multi-Global Climate Model ensemble across representative wheat growing regions and aggregated to national wheat production. Under both baseline (current) and future climate scenarios, most of the suggested individual and combined genetic traits resulted in a positive impact on irrigated wheat but were less beneficial in rainfed systems, with the largest responses observed with late flowering and increased N fertilizer. Increased N fertilizer applications on its own, but particularly combined with crop genetic traits showed the highest yield increase in the baseline, with further positive impacts in the future scenarios. Yield benefits from new crop genetic traits combined with increased N fertilizer applications could add about 672,000 t year(-1) to national wheat production, after losing 200,000 t year(-1) due to climate change by 2050s. Most effectively, expanding wheat to include all areas where wheat was previously grown during the last two decades could add 1.5 million t year(-1) now and 1.2 million t year(-1) in the future. Breeding for new crop genetic traits will reduce some of the negative impacts from future climate change, but improved cultivars need to be Implemented with suitable crop management, especially N fertilizer management.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/146524
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Univ Florida, Dept Agr & Biol Engn, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA
2.Int Maize & Wheat Improvement Ctr, Mexico City 06600, DF, Mexico
3.Univ Florida, Inst Sustainable Food Syst, Frazier Rogers Hall, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA
4.Int Food Policy Res Inst, Washington, DC 20006 USA
5.Univ Florida, Dept Soil & Water Sci, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA
6.Univ Florida, Dept Agron, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA

Recommended Citation:
Hernandez-Ochoa, Ixchel M.,Luz Pequeno, Diego Notello,Reynolds, Matthew,et al. Adapting irrigated and rainfed wheat to climate change in semi-arid environments: Management, breeding options and land use change[J]. EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGRONOMY,2019-01-01,109
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