Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection that has spread throughout the tropical world over the past 60 years and now affects over half the world's population. The geographical range of dengue is expected to further expand due to ongoing global phenomena including climate change and urbanization. We applied statistical mapping techniques to the most extensive database of case locations to date to predict global environmental suitability for the virus as of 2015. We then made use of climate, population and socioeconomic projections for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 to project future changes in virus suitability and human population at risk. This study is the first to consider the spread of Aedes mosquito vectors to project dengue suitability. Our projections provide a key missing piece of evidence for the changing global threat of vector-borne disease and will help decision-makers worldwide to better prepare for and respond to future changes in dengue risk.
1.Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Oxford, England 2.Univ Oxford, Sch Interdisciplinary Area Studies, Oxford, England 3.London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Ctr Math Modelling Infect Dis, London, England 4.London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, London, England 5.Univ Melbourne, Sch Biosci, Parkville, Vic, Australia 6.Harvard Univ, Harvard Med Sch, Boston, MA 02115 USA 7.Boston Childrens Hosp, Boston, MA USA 8.Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford, England 9.Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Environm Res Grp Oxford, Oxford, England 10.Univ Washington, Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat, Seattle, WA 98195 USA 11.Univ Oxford, Li Ka Shing Ctr Hlth Informat & Discovery, Big Data Inst, Oxford, England 12.Univ Libre Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium 13.WHO, Geneva, Switzerland 14.Waen Associates Ltd, Dolgellau, Gwynedd, Wales 15.Heidelberg Univ Hosp, Dept Infect Dis, Sect Clin Trop Med, Heidelberg, Germany 16.Univ Calif Davis, Dept Entomol & Nematol, Davis, CA 95616 USA
Recommended Citation:
Messina, Jane P.,Brady, Oliver J.,Golding, Nick,et al. The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue[J]. NATURE MICROBIOLOGY,2019-01-01,4(9):1508-1515