Global terrestrial models currently predict that the Amazon rainforest will continue to act as a carbon sink in the future, primarily owing to the rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration. Soil phosphorus impoverishment in parts of the Amazon basin largely controls its functioning, but the role of phosphorus availability has not been considered in global model ensembles-for example, during the Fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project. Here we simulate the planned free-air CO2 enrichment experiment AmazonFACE with an ensemble of 14 terrestrial ecosystem models. We show that phosphorus availability reduces the projected CO2-induced biomass carbon growth by about 50% to 79 +/- 63 g C m(-2) yr(-1) over 15 years compared to estimates from carbon and carbon-nitrogen models. Our results suggest that the resilience of the region to climate change may be much less than previously assumed. Variation in the biomass carbon response among the phosphorus-enabled models is considerable, ranging from 5 to 140 g C m(-)2 yr(-1), owing to the contrasting plant phosphorus use and acquisition strategies considered among the models. The Amazon forest response thus depends on the interactions and relative contributions of the phosphorus acquisition and use strategies across individuals, and to what extent these processes can be upregulated under elevated CO2.
1.Tech Univ Munich, Land Surface Atmosphere Interact, Munich, Germany 2.Univ New South Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW, Australia 3.ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Extremes, Sydney, NSW, Australia 4.Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Environm Sci Div, Oak Ridge, TN USA 5.Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Climate Change Sci Inst, Oak Ridge, TN USA 6.Univ Sao Paulo, Dept Biol, FFCLRP, Ribeirao Preto, Brazil 7.Natl Inst Amazonian Res INPA, Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil 8.Univ Antwerp, Dept Biol, Antwerp, Belgium 9.CEA CNRS UVSQ, IPSL, LSCE, St Aubin, France 10.Univ Augsburg, Lehrstuhl Phys Geog Mit Schwerpunkt Klimaforsch, Augsburg, Germany 11.Univ Sao Paulo, Dept Bot, Sao Paulo, Brazil 12.Western Sydney Univ, Hawkesbury Inst Environm, Sydney, NSW, Australia 13.CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT, Australia 14.Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Laxenburg, Austria 15.Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Berkeley, CA USA 16.Alterra Wageningen, Wageningen, Netherlands 17.Univ Exeter, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Exeter, Devon, England 18.Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Inst Environm Energy & Sustainabil, Hong Kong, Peoples R China 19.Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Wallingford, Oxon, England 20.CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Aspendale, Vic, Australia 21.Natl Inst Space Res INPE, Sao Jose Dos Campos, Brazil 22.Florida Int Univ, Int Ctr Trop Bot, Miami, FL 33199 USA 23.Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, Jena, Germany 24.Univ Estadual Campinas, Ctr Meteorol & Climat Res Appl Agr, Campinas, SP, Brazil
Recommended Citation:
Fleischer, Katrin,Rammigl, Anja,De Kauwe, Martin G.,et al. Amazon forest response to CO2 fertilization dependent on plant phosphorus acquisition[J]. NATURE GEOSCIENCE,2019-01-01,12(9):736-+