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Investments in modernizing irrigation infrastructure are key to enhance water security for agriculture. However, outcomes of investments are insufficiently understood, limiting the future design of interventions. This article applies a fixed effects regression model to test whether modernization of irrigation systems in Madhya Pradesh leads to improvements in district-level yields and protection of yields against sub-basin rainfall variability. Findings suggest that investments fail to improve yields in districts with deficient rainfall and fail to buffer crops against monsoon variability, compared to control districts with no investments. Interventions should be designed to respond to the complexities of sub-basin rainfall variability.