globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1111/ibi.12765
WOS记录号: WOS:000485027100001
论文题名:
Survival synchronicity in two avian insectivore communities
作者: Jansen, Dorine Y. M.1,2,3; Lloyd, Penn4; Oschadleus, Hans-Dieter2,5; Altwegg, Res1,2,6
通讯作者: Altwegg, Res
刊名: IBIS
ISSN: 0019-1019
EISSN: 1474-919X
出版年: 2019
语种: 英语
英文关键词: community dynamics ; population dynamics ; temporal variation ; variance components
WOS关键词: SOUTH TEMPERATE BIRDS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; INTERSPECIFIC SYNCHRONY ; MODELING SURVIVAL ; TROPICAL BIRDS ; POPULATIONS ; DEMOGRAPHY ; DYNAMICS ; CONSEQUENCES ; PATTERNS
WOS学科分类: Ornithology
WOS研究方向: Zoology
英文摘要:

Climate change is forecast to increase climatic variability, in particular the occurrence of extreme events. Consequently, it is imperative to understand how climatic variation influences the dynamics of communities. We investigated synchronicity in survival in response to climatic variation among bird communities occupying habitats that differed in climatic seasonality: a more seasonal wetland and a less seasonal fynbos shrubland in South Africa. We predicted higher synchronicity at the wetland than at the shrubland because there was more potential for weather to induce variation in survival at this climatically more variable site. We estimated survival from ringing data for four wetland species and three fynbos species in hierarchical models with an asynchronous (species-specific) variance component and a synchronous (common) variance component. Comparing models including and excluding a climatic covariate enabled us to estimate the effect of climatic variation as a synchronizing and desynchronizing agent on survival. As hypothesized, synchronicity in survival was substantially greater at the more seasonal wetland than at the climatically more stable fynbos site: 0.50 (95% credible interval 0.01-1.92 on the logit scale) and 0.03 (0.00001-0.19), respectively. Similarly, asynchronicity in survival was greater for wetland species than for fynbos species. However, we found no clear evidence that weather affected survival. We provide the first survival estimates of several African endemic birds and the first estimates of synchronicity and asynchronicity in survival of communities outside the strongly seasonal northern temperate zone. Our results suggest that the relative magnitude of synchronicity and asynchronicity varies among communities and support the idea that environmental variability induces synchronicity.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/146739
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Univ Cape Town, Dept Stat Sci, Ctr Stat Ecol Environm & Conservat, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa
2.Univ Cape Town, Dept Biol Sci, Anim Demog Unit, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa
3.South African Natl Biodivers Inst, ZA-7735 Claremont, South Africa
4.Univ Cape Town, DST NRF Ctr Excellence, FitzPatrick Inst African Ornithol, Private Bag X3, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa
5.Univ KwaZulu Natal, Sch Life Sci, Private Bag X01, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa
6.Univ Cape Town, African Climate & Dev Initiat, Private Bag X3, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa

Recommended Citation:
Jansen, Dorine Y. M.,Lloyd, Penn,Oschadleus, Hans-Dieter,et al. Survival synchronicity in two avian insectivore communities[J]. IBIS,2019-01-01
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