The community of species, human institutions, and human activities at a given location have been shaped by historical conditions (both mean and variability) at that location. Anthropogenic climate change is now adding strong trends on top of existing natural variability. These trends elevate the frequency of "surprises"-conditions that are unexpected based on recent history. Here, we show that the frequency of surprising ocean temperatures has increased even faster than expected based on recent temperature trends. Using a simple model of human adaptation, we show that these surprises will increasingly challenge natural modes of adaptation that rely on historical experience. We also show that warming rates are likely to shift natural communities toward generalist species, reducing their productivity and diversity. Our work demonstrates increasing benefits for individuals and institutions from betting that trends will continue, but this strategy represents a radical shift that will be difficult for many to make.
1.Gulf Maine Res Inst, Portland, ME 04101 USA 2.Bigelow Lab Ocean Sci, East Boothbay, ME 04544 USA 3.Univ Calif Riverside, Sch Publ Policy, Riverside, CA 92521 USA 4.Colby Coll, Dept Environm Studies, Waterville, ME 04901 USA 5.Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA 6.NOAA, Phys Sci Div, Earth Syst Res Lab, Boulder, CO 80305 USA 7.Univ Maine, Sch Marine Sci, Orono, ME 04469 USA 8.Nature Conservancy, Global Sci, Brunswick, ME 04011 USA
Recommended Citation:
Pershing, Andrew J.,Record, Nicholas R.,Franklin, Bradley S.,et al. Challenges to natural and human communities from surprising ocean temperatures[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2019-01-01,116(37):18378-18383