globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1029/2019EF001178
WOS记录号: WOS:000485348500001
论文题名:
Observed Northward Migration of Agro-Climate Zones in Europe Will Further Accelerate Under Climate Change
作者: Ceglar, A.; Zampieri, M.; Toreti, A.; Dentener, F.
通讯作者: Ceglar, A.
刊名: EARTHS FUTURE
EISSN: 2328-4277
出版年: 2019
语种: 英语
英文关键词: agro-climate zone ; migration velocity ; climate change ; heat stress ; Europe ; agriculture
WOS关键词: HEAT WAVES ; WHEAT ; TEMPERATURE ; PROJECTIONS ; REANALYSIS ; FREQUENT ; IMPACTS ; DROUGHT ; CORDEX
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

This study focuses on the northward shift of homogeneous agro-climate zones in Europe analyzed for the observed past and projected climate conditions for the next decades. Statistical cluster analysis is used to derive eight main agro-climatic zones driven by two agro-meteorological indicators, namely, active temperature sum and thermal growing season length. The northward shift of homogeneous agro-climate zones and the corresponding change of crop growth suitability are analyzed together with the change of exposure of crops to temperature-related climate extremes during the growing season. Gradual warming over Europe has contributed to a lengthening of the growing season and an increased active temperature accumulation, accompanied by more frequent occurrence of warm extreme climate events. Using a set of five high-resolution regional climate scenarios, we calculate that a major part of Europe will be affected by further northward climate zone migration. In the next decades, the migration of agro-climatic zones in Eastern Europe may reach twice the velocity observed during the period 1975-2016. Several regions of the Mediterranean may lose suitability to grow specific crops in favor of northern European regions. This indicator-based assessment suggests that the potential advantages of the lengthening of the thermal growing season in northern and eastern Europe are often outbalanced by the risk of late frost and increased risk of early spring and summer heat waves.


Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/146876
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: European Commiss, JRC, Ispra, Italy

Recommended Citation:
Ceglar, A.,Zampieri, M.,Toreti, A.,et al. Observed Northward Migration of Agro-Climate Zones in Europe Will Further Accelerate Under Climate Change[J]. EARTHS FUTURE,2019-01-01
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Ceglar, A.]'s Articles
[Zampieri, M.]'s Articles
[Toreti, A.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Ceglar, A.]'s Articles
[Zampieri, M.]'s Articles
[Toreti, A.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Ceglar, A.]‘s Articles
[Zampieri, M.]‘s Articles
[Toreti, A.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.