globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.05.328
WOS记录号: WOS:000477784000019
论文题名:
The impacts of uncertainties on the carbon mitigation design: Perspective from abatement cost and emission rate
作者: Guo, Jian-Xin1,2; Tan, Xianchun1,2; Gu, Baihe1,2; Qu, Xinglong3,4
通讯作者: Guo, Jian-Xin ; Qu, Xinglong
刊名: JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
ISSN: 0959-6526
EISSN: 1879-1786
出版年: 2019
卷: 232, 页码:213-223
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change mitigation ; Abatement strategy ; Abatement uncertainty ; Stochastic dynamic programming
WOS关键词: OPTIMAL CO2 ABATEMENT ; CONSUMPTION ; INVESTMENT ; ALLOCATION ; ADOPTION ; OPTION
WOS学科分类: Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Engineering, Environmental ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

In this paper, we use a stochastic dynamic programming model to evaluate the impacts of uncertainties on the abatement planning process. By involving the endogenous emission path, we differentiate two types of uncertainties during the planning process, which come from the volatility of the abatement cost and the ambiguity of emission rate. Results suggest that the considered uncertainties influence the decision-making process in several aspects by shaping the abatement path as well as emission path. (1) The impacts vary with the expected value and the level of variance of the uncertainty effects. Uncertainties caused by abatement costs from 0.02 to 0.06 and emission factors from 0.01 to 0.03 increase the total abatement costs around 7% and 5% respectively. (2) Both of these uncertainties can generate precautionary abatement in short-term. Especially during the early stages, the abatement task will be increased by 1% around in each period due to the uncertainties. However such an action will be diminishing as the duration elapses. (3) Both of these uncertainties influence the long-term abatement performances, however, with different forms and mechanisms. With small volatility, the emission rate changes the priority sequence of abatement actions more substantially in the short-term than the emission rate does. (4) The combined uncertainties can behave in a compound way to improve the uncertainty performance in the model. The difference between the emission peaks of conservative and extreme cases is significant with the gap being about 5 million metric ton. These results have potentially important policy implications and can provide a rationale for abatement actions. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/147046
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Sci & Dev, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
3.Hangzhou Dianzi Univ, Res Ctr Informat Technol & Social & Econ Dev, Hangzhou 310018, Zhejiang, Peoples R China
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Guo, Jian-Xin,Tan, Xianchun,Gu, Baihe,et al. The impacts of uncertainties on the carbon mitigation design: Perspective from abatement cost and emission rate[J]. JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,2019-01-01,232:213-223
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