globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104492
WOS记录号: WOS:000485105700015
论文题名:
To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers?
作者: Kipling, R. P.1; Topp, C. F. E.2; Bannink, A.3; Bartley, D. J.4; Blanco-Penedo, I.5,6; Cortignani, R.7; del Prado, A.8; Dono, G.7; Faverdin, P.9; Graux, A. -I.9; Hutchings, N. J.10; Lauwers, L.11,12; Gulzari, S. Ozkan3,13,14; Reidsma, P.15; Rolinski, S.16; Ruiz-Ramos, M.17; Sandars, D. L.18; Sandor, R.19; Schoenhart, M.20; Seddaiu, G.21,22; van Middelkoop, J.3; Shrestha, S.2; Weindl, I.16; Eory, V.2,23
通讯作者: Kipling, R. P.
刊名: ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
ISSN: 1364-8152
EISSN: 1873-6726
出版年: 2019
卷: 120
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Adaptation ; Agricultural modelling ; Climate change ; Research challenges
WOS关键词: GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS ; FARM-LEVEL ADAPTATION ; LAND-USE ; FOOD SECURITY ; ADAPTING AGRICULTURE ; LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION ; DECISION-MAKING ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; DAIRY FARMS ; CROP
WOS学科分类: Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications ; Engineering, Environmental ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向: Computer Science ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Modelling is key to adapting agriculture to climate change (CC), facilitating evaluation of the impacts and efficacy of adaptation measures, and the design of optimal strategies. Although there are many challenges to modelling agricultural CC adaptation, it is unclear whether these are novel or, whether adaptation merely adds new motivations to old challenges. Here, qualitative analysis of modellers' views revealed three categories of challenge: Content, Use, and Capacity. Triangulation of findings with reviews of agricultural modelling and Climate Change Risk Assessment was then used to highlight challenges specific to modelling adaptation. These were refined through literature review, focussing attention on how the progressive nature of CC affects the role and impact of modelling. Specific challenges identified were: Scope of adaptations modelled, Information on future adaptation, Collaboration to tackle novel challenges, Optimisation under progressive change with thresholds, and Responsibility given the sensitivity of future outcomes to initial choices under progressive change.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/147171
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Aberystwyth Univ, Aberystwyth SY23 3EE, Ceredigion, Wales
2.SRUC, West Mains Rd, Edinburgh EH9 3JG, Midlothian, Scotland
3.Wageningen Univ & Res, Wageningen Livestock Res, POB 338, NL-6700 AH Wageningen, Netherlands
4.Moredun Res Inst, Dis Control, Pentlands Sci Pk, Penicuik EH26 0PZ, Midlothian, Scotland
5.Swedish Univ Agr Sci, Dept Clin Sci, SE-75007 Uppsala, Sweden
6.IRTA, Anim Welf Subprogram, ES-17121 Monells, Girona, Spain
7.Tuscia Univ, Dept Agr & Forestry ScieNcEs DAFNE, Viterbo, Italy
8.BC3, Edificio Sede 1,Planta 1,Parque Cient UPV EHU, Leioa 48940, Bizkaia, Spain
9.Agrocampus Ouest, INRA, PEGASE, F-35590 St Gilles, France
10.Aarhus Univ, Dept Agroecol, Postbox 50, DK-8830 Tjele, Denmark
11.Flanders Res Inst Agr Fisheries & Food, Merelbeke, Belgium
12.Univ Ghent, Dept Agr Econ, Ghent, Belgium
13.Norwegian Univ Life Sci, Fac Vet Med & Biosci, Dept Anim & Aquacultural Sci, POB 5003, N-1432 As, Norway
14.Norwegian Inst Bioecon Res, POB 115, N-1431 As, Norway
15.Wageningen Univ & Res, Plant Prod Syst, POB 430, NL-6700 AK Wageningen, Netherlands
16.Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Telegraphenberg A31, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany
17.Univ Politecn Madrid, CEIGRAM ETSIAAB, E-28040 Madrid, Spain
18.Cranfield Univ, SWEE, Cranfield MK43 0AL, Beds, England
19.Hungarian Acad Sci, Agr Inst, Ctr Agr Res, Brunszvik U 2, H-2462 Martonvasar, Hungary
20.BOKU Univ Nat Resources & Life Sci, Inst Sustainable Econ Dev, Feistmantelstra 4, A-1180 Vienna, Austria
21.Univ Sassari, Desertificat Res Ctr, Sassari, Italy
22.Univ Sassari, Dept Agr Sci, Sassari, Italy
23.Leibniz Inst Agr Engn & Bioecon ATB, Max Eyth Allee 100, D-14469 Potsdam, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Kipling, R. P.,Topp, C. F. E.,Bannink, A.,et al. To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers?[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE,2019-01-01,120
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