Modelling is key to adapting agriculture to climate change (CC), facilitating evaluation of the impacts and efficacy of adaptation measures, and the design of optimal strategies. Although there are many challenges to modelling agricultural CC adaptation, it is unclear whether these are novel or, whether adaptation merely adds new motivations to old challenges. Here, qualitative analysis of modellers' views revealed three categories of challenge: Content, Use, and Capacity. Triangulation of findings with reviews of agricultural modelling and Climate Change Risk Assessment was then used to highlight challenges specific to modelling adaptation. These were refined through literature review, focussing attention on how the progressive nature of CC affects the role and impact of modelling. Specific challenges identified were: Scope of adaptations modelled, Information on future adaptation, Collaboration to tackle novel challenges, Optimisation under progressive change with thresholds, and Responsibility given the sensitivity of future outcomes to initial choices under progressive change.
1.Aberystwyth Univ, Aberystwyth SY23 3EE, Ceredigion, Wales 2.SRUC, West Mains Rd, Edinburgh EH9 3JG, Midlothian, Scotland 3.Wageningen Univ & Res, Wageningen Livestock Res, POB 338, NL-6700 AH Wageningen, Netherlands 4.Moredun Res Inst, Dis Control, Pentlands Sci Pk, Penicuik EH26 0PZ, Midlothian, Scotland 5.Swedish Univ Agr Sci, Dept Clin Sci, SE-75007 Uppsala, Sweden 6.IRTA, Anim Welf Subprogram, ES-17121 Monells, Girona, Spain 7.Tuscia Univ, Dept Agr & Forestry ScieNcEs DAFNE, Viterbo, Italy 8.BC3, Edificio Sede 1,Planta 1,Parque Cient UPV EHU, Leioa 48940, Bizkaia, Spain 9.Agrocampus Ouest, INRA, PEGASE, F-35590 St Gilles, France 10.Aarhus Univ, Dept Agroecol, Postbox 50, DK-8830 Tjele, Denmark 11.Flanders Res Inst Agr Fisheries & Food, Merelbeke, Belgium 12.Univ Ghent, Dept Agr Econ, Ghent, Belgium 13.Norwegian Univ Life Sci, Fac Vet Med & Biosci, Dept Anim & Aquacultural Sci, POB 5003, N-1432 As, Norway 14.Norwegian Inst Bioecon Res, POB 115, N-1431 As, Norway 15.Wageningen Univ & Res, Plant Prod Syst, POB 430, NL-6700 AK Wageningen, Netherlands 16.Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Telegraphenberg A31, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany 17.Univ Politecn Madrid, CEIGRAM ETSIAAB, E-28040 Madrid, Spain 18.Cranfield Univ, SWEE, Cranfield MK43 0AL, Beds, England 19.Hungarian Acad Sci, Agr Inst, Ctr Agr Res, Brunszvik U 2, H-2462 Martonvasar, Hungary 20.BOKU Univ Nat Resources & Life Sci, Inst Sustainable Econ Dev, Feistmantelstra 4, A-1180 Vienna, Austria 21.Univ Sassari, Desertificat Res Ctr, Sassari, Italy 22.Univ Sassari, Dept Agr Sci, Sassari, Italy 23.Leibniz Inst Agr Engn & Bioecon ATB, Max Eyth Allee 100, D-14469 Potsdam, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Kipling, R. P.,Topp, C. F. E.,Bannink, A.,et al. To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers?[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE,2019-01-01,120