globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1175/WCAS-D-19-0040.1
WOS记录号: WOS:000478752400001
论文题名:
Weather and Climate Variability May Be Poor Proxies for Climate Change in Farmer Risk Perceptions
作者: Findlater, Kieran M.1,2,3; Kandlikar, Milind1,2; Satterfield, Terre1; Donner, Simon D.4
通讯作者: Findlater, Kieran M.
刊名: WEATHER CLIMATE AND SOCIETY
ISSN: 1948-8327
EISSN: 1948-8335
出版年: 2019
卷: 11, 期:4, 页码:697-711
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Social Science ; Africa ; Climate change ; Agriculture ; Communications ; decision making ; Societal impacts
WOS关键词: CHANGE ADAPTATION ; DECISION-MAKING ; SOUTH-AFRICA ; AGRICULTURE ; INSIGHTS ; BELIEFS
WOS学科分类: Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Despite long-standing assertions that climate change creates new risk management challenges, the climate change adaptation literature persists in assuming, both implicitly and explicitly, that weather and climate variability are suitable proxies for climate change in evaluating farmers' risk perceptions and predicting their adaptive responses. This assumption persists in part because there is surprisingly little empirical evidence either way, although case studies suggest that there may be important differences. Here, we use a national survey of South Africa's commercial grain farmers (n = 389)-similar to their peers in higher-income countries (e.g., North America, Europe, Australia), but without subsidies-to show that they treat weather and climate change risks quite differently. We find that their perceptions of climate change risks are distinct from and, in many regards, oppositional to their perceptions of weather risks. While there seems to be a temporal element to this distinction (i.e., differing concern for short-term vs long-term risks), there are other differences that are better understood in terms of normalcy (i.e., normal vs abnormal relative to historical climate) and permanency (i.e., temporary vs permanent changes). We also find an interaction effect of education and political identity on concern for climate change that is at odds with the well-publicized cultural cognition thesis based on surveys of the American public. Overall, studies that use weather and climate variability as unqualified proxies for climate change are likely to mislead researchers and policymakers about how farmers perceive, interpret, and respond to climate change stimuli.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/147279
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Univ British Columbia, Inst Resources Environm & Sustainabil, Vancouver, BC, Canada
2.Univ British Columbia, Sch Publ Policy & Global Affairs, Vancouver, BC, Canada
3.Univ Cape Town, African Climate & Dev Initiat, Cape Town, South Africa
4.Univ British Columbia, Dept Geog, Vancouver, BC, Canada

Recommended Citation:
Findlater, Kieran M.,Kandlikar, Milind,Satterfield, Terre,et al. Weather and Climate Variability May Be Poor Proxies for Climate Change in Farmer Risk Perceptions[J]. WEATHER CLIMATE AND SOCIETY,2019-01-01,11(4):697-711
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