globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5196102
论文题名:
气候变化科学与人类可持续发展
其他题名: Climate change science and sustainable development
作者: 秦大河
刊名: 地理科学进展
ISSN: 1007-6301
出版年: 2014
卷: 33, 期:7
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; 全球变暖 ; 影响 ; 适应 ; 脆弱性 ; 减缓 ; 可持续发展
英文关键词: climate change ; global warming ; impact ; adaptation ; vulnerability ; mitigation ; sustainable development
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)自2007年发布第四次评估报告(AR4)以来,新的观测证据进一步证明,全球气候系统变暖是毋庸置疑的事实。2012年之前的3个连续10年的全球地表平均气温,都比1850年以来任何一个10年更高,且可能是过去1400年来最热的30年。虽然1998-2012年全球地表增温速率趋缓,但还不能反映出气候变化的长期趋势。1970年以来海洋在变暖,海洋上层75 m以上的海水温度每10年升温幅度超过0.11℃; 1971-2010年地球气候系统增加的净能量中,93%被海洋吸收。全球平均海平面上升速率加快,1993-2010年间高达3.2 mm/年。全球海洋的人为碳库很可能已增加,导致海洋表层水酸化。1971年以来,全球几乎所有冰川、格陵兰冰盖和南极冰盖的冰量都在损失。其中1979年以来北极海冰范围以每10年3.5%~4.1%的速率缩小,同期南极海冰范围以每10年1.2%~1.8%的速率增大。北半球积雪范围在缩小。20世纪80年代初以来,大多数地区的多年冻土温度升高。已在大气和海洋变暖、水循环变化、冰冻圈退缩、海平面上升和极端气候事件的变化中检测到人类活动影响的信号。1750年以来大气CO_2浓度的增加是人为辐射强迫增加的主因,导致20世纪50年代以来50%以上的全球气候变暖,其信度超过95%。采用CMIP5模式和典型浓度路径(RCPs),预估本世纪末全球地表平均气温将继续升高,热浪、强降水等极端事件的发生频率将增加,降水将呈现干者愈干、湿者愈湿趋势。海洋上层的温度比1986-2005年间升高0.6~2.0℃,热量将从海表传向深海,并影响大洋环流,2100年海平面将上升0.26~0.82 m。冰冻圈将继续变暖。为控制气候变暖,人类需要减少温室气体排放。如果较工业化之前的温升达到2℃,全球年均经济损失将达到收入的0.2%~2.0%,并造成大范围不可逆的影响,导致死亡、疾病、食品安全、内陆洪涝、农村饮水和灌溉困难等问题,影响人类安全。但如果采取积极行动,2℃的温升目标仍可望达到。为遏制逐渐失控的全球变暖,需全球共同努力减排,以实现人类可持续发展的理想。
英文摘要: Since the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) was released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007, new observations have further proved that the warming of the global climate system is unequivocal. Each of the last three successive decades before 2012 has been successively warmer at global mean surface temperature than any preceding decade since 1850. 1983-2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years. From 1998 to 2012, the rate of warming of the global land surface slowed down, but it did not reflect the long-term trends in climate change. The ocean has warmed, and the upper 75 m of the ocean warmed by more than 0.11℃ per decade since 1970. Over the period of 1971 to 2010, 93% of the net energy increase in the Earth's climate system was stored in the oceans. The rate of global mean sea level rise has accelerated, which was up to 3.2 mm yr~(-1) between 1993 and 2010. Anthropogenic global ocean carbon stocks were likely to have increased and caused acidification of the ocean surface water. Since 1971, the glaciers and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass. Since 1979, the Arctic sea ice extent deceased at 3.5% to 4.1% per decade, and the Antarctic sea ice extent in the same period increased by 1.2% to 1.8% per decade. The extent of the Northern Hemisphere snow cover has decreased. Since the early 1980s, the permafrost temperatures have increased in most regions. Human influence has been detected in the warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, changes in the water cycle, reductions in snow and ice, global mean sea level rise, and changes in climate extremes. The largest contribution to the increase in the anthropogenic radiative forcing was by the increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO_2 since 1750. It led to more than half of global warming since the 1950s (with 95 % confidence). It is predicted using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) that the global mean surface temperature will continue to rise for the end of this century, the frequency of extreme events such as heat waves and heavy precipitation will increase, and precipitation will present a trend of "the dry becomes drier, the wet becomes wetter". The temperature of the upper ocean will increase by 0.6 to 2.0℃ compared to the period of 1986 to 2005, heat will penetrate from the surface to the deep ocean which will affect ocean circulation, and sea level will rise by 0.26 to 0.82 m in 2100. Cryosphere will continue to warm. To control global warming, humans need to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions. If the increase in temperature is higher than 2℃ than before industrialization, the mean annual economic losses worldwide will reach 0.2% to 2.0% of income, and cause large-scale irreversible effects, including death, disease, food insecurity, inland flooding and water logging, and rural drinking water and irrigation difficulties that affect human security. If taking prompt actions, however, it is still possible to limit the increase in temperature within 2℃. To curb the gradually out-of-control global warming and achieve the goal of sustainable development of the human society, global efforts to reduce emissions are needed.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/147518
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作者单位: 中国气象局, 冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室, 北京 100081, 中国

Recommended Citation:
秦大河. 气候变化科学与人类可持续发展[J]. 地理科学进展,2014-01-01,33(7)
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