globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5113724
论文题名:
气候变化背景下玉米棉铃虫消长动态预测及影响因素研究
其他题名: Study on the factors affecting corn's Helicoverpa armigera dynamic prediction under the background of climate change
作者: 刘明春1; 蒋菊芳2; 郭小芹2; 孙占峰2; 丁文魁2
刊名: 干旱地区农业研究
ISSN: 1000-7601
出版年: 2014
卷: 32, 期:2
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 河西走廊 ; 玉米 ; 棉铃虫 ; 气候变化 ; 影响因素
英文关键词: Hexi Corridor ; com ; bollworm(Helicoverpa armigera) ; climate change ; influencing factors
WOS学科分类: AGRICULTURE MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
中文摘要: 采用甘肃省武威市农技中心植保站1999-2008年棉铃虫观测资料及武威市气象局观测站1953-2010年气象资料,利用统计学方法中的作物生长模型、主成分分析方法,建立了棉铃虫种群增长模型和气象预报预测模型,分析了气候变暖特征及对棉铃虫种群增长的影响。结果表明:玉米棉铃虫百株卵量周年增长动态分缓慢增长、快速增长、减速增长三个时期,快速增长期出现在7月下旬末至8月上旬(玉米吐丝期);建立了棉铃虫卵始见期、卵高峰期、高峰期卵量、高峰期虫量气候预测模型,预测准确率78%-89%,可用于棉铃虫预报业务应用;揭示了气候变化对玉米棉铃虫发生发展的影响:棉铃虫越冬期(12-2月)最低气温每10年增温0.58℃,暖冬利于棉铃虫安全越冬,越冬基数增加,成活率提高;繁殖期(5-9月)≥10℃积温每10年增加133℃。热量条件改善,有利于棉铃虫种群增长加快、繁殖代数增加、危害期延长;气候极端事件发生的不确定性,对棉铃虫的发生发展将起到明显的抑制作用。
英文摘要: The helicoverpa armigera investigation data from the Center of Plant Protection Station of Wuwei and meteorological data during 1953 to 2010 years from Wuwei Bureau of Meteorology were used. We established population growth model of helicoverpa armigera and meteorological forecast model, by which the characteristics and effects of climate warming were analyzed. The results showed that the accumulated egg number per 100 plants growth followed a typical "S" curve. The rapid growth period was in late July to early August (the corn silking stage). The prediction model had a prediction accuracy rate of 78% ~ 89%. The impact of climate change on the occurrence and development of helicoverpa annigera were revealed. And the increased temperature was favorable for helicoverpa armigera population growth and reproduction.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/147709
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所, 甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室
2.中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室, 兰州, 甘肃 730020, 中国
3.甘肃省武威市气象局, 武威, 甘肃 733000, 中国

Recommended Citation:
刘明春,蒋菊芳,郭小芹,等. 气候变化背景下玉米棉铃虫消长动态预测及影响因素研究[J]. 干旱地区农业研究,2014-01-01,32(2)
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