globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5321738
论文题名:
黑河出山径流过程与气象要素多尺度交叉小波分析
其他题名: Multi-time scale crosswavelet transformation between runoff and climate factors in the upstream of Heihe River
作者: 刘志方1; 刘友存1; 郝永红1; 韩添丁2; 崔玉环3; 王建2; 王中良1
刊名: 干旱区地理
ISSN: 1000-6060
出版年: 2014
卷: 37, 期:6
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 交叉小波 ; 气候变化 ; 径流变化 ; 非平稳时间序列 ; 黑河
英文关键词: cross wavelet analysis ; climate change ; runoff variability ; nonstationary time series ; the Heihe River
WOS学科分类: GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Geology
中文摘要: 运用交叉小波对黑河上游野牛沟气象站1959-2010年和祁连气象站1957-2010年年降水(AP)与年均气温(AAT)、北极涛动指数(AOI)和莺落峡站(1944-2010年)的年均径流量(AAR)进行了多尺度分析。结果表明:AOI存在3~5 a尺度的显著周期,AAT存在3 a尺度的显著周期,AP 存在3a和4~6a尺度的显著周期,AAR存在3a、2.5~4a和5a比较显著的周期;黑河上游径流的增加主要是受暖湿气候影响;AAR与AOI、AAT呈现出3a的负相关和3~4a的近似负相关共振周期,AAR与存在2 ~7 a的显著性的共振周期,降水对径流的影响很大,为径流的主要补给来源;受AOI的影响,AAR在1987年发生3 a周期的丰-枯转换,受AAT的影响,AAR在1974年和1996年发生3 a周期的丰-枯转换,受AP的影响,AAR在1986年发生3 a周期的丰-枯转换。降水和气温是影响径流变化的主导因素。
英文摘要: Wavelet analysis is a useful tool for analyzing multi-time scale and heteroscedastic time series. In this paper, the multi-time scale cross-wavelet transformation is used to study runoff and climate factors as well as their relationships in the upstream of the Heihe River. The runoff time series ( AAR ) is constituted of annual average runoff at Yingluoxia Station from 1944 to 2010,and the climate factors consist of: annual index of Arctic Oscillation (AOI) from 1950-2010, annual average temperature (AAT) at Yeniugou Station (1959-2010) and Qilian Station (1957-2010) , annual precipitation (AP) at Yeniugou Station (1959-2010) and Qilian Station (1957-2010). Firstly, continuous wavelet transformation was used to analyze runoff (AAR ) and meteorological time series (i.e. AOI, AAT and AP ),and then we used cross-wavelet transformation and wavelet coherence to study relationships between AAR and meteorological time series (i.e. AOI, AAT and AP ) respectively. Besides,Monte Carlo methods were used to assess the statistical significance against red noise backgrounds because the addition of statistical significance tests will improve the quantitative nature of wavelet analysis. Results of continuous wavelet transformation show that AOI has significant 3-5 a periods, AAT has a significant 3 a period, AP has relatively significant 3 a and 4-6 a periods, and AAR has three relatively significant periods which are 3 a, 2.5-4 a and 5 a. Besides, the fact that the high-energy zone of AAR covers most of high-energy areas of AAT and AP indicates that AAR variability in the upstream of the Heihe River has a positive response to variability of AAT and AP, and the runoff increase is mainly affected by warm and humid climate. Moreover, results of cross wavelet power spectrum and wavelet coherence show that AAR is inversely related to AOI with a 3-a resonant period, and AAR is almost negatively related to AAT with 3-4 a resonant period; the fact that AAR has significant 2-7 a resonant periods with AP demonstrates that the precipitation has a great influence on runoff and it is the main supply of the runoff; Influenced by AOI, precipitation and temperature individually, the runoff exhibits a 3-a periodic variation of high flow and low flow in the mutations year 1987,1986,1974 and 1996,respectively. In addition, the results imply that precipitation and temperature are the dominant factors that influence the variation of runoff. The cross wavelet analysis is capable to reveal the correlation between the variation of hydrological element (runoff) and the variability of meteorological elements (temperature and precipitation) in the upstream of the Heihe River. Forecasts of the future evolutions of water resources in the upstream of the Heihe River is feasible based on the results. Moreover,it is hoped that the analysis presented here will be proved useful in studies of nonstationary time series.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/147748
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作者单位: 1.天津师范大学, 天津市水资源与水环境重点实验室, 天津 300387, 中国
2.中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所, 兰州, 甘肃 730000, 中国
3.安徽农业大学理学院, 合肥, 安徽 230036, 中国

Recommended Citation:
刘志方,刘友存,郝永红,等. 黑河出山径流过程与气象要素多尺度交叉小波分析[J]. 干旱区地理,2014-01-01,37(6)
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