globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5215865
论文题名:
哥本哈根国际气候谈判的博弈树相关均衡分析
其他题名: Game tree-correlated equilibrium analysis for Copenhagen international climate negotiation
作者: 王维国; 刘德海; 宋雯彦; 杨丽丽
刊名: 系统工程理论与实践
ISSN: 1000-6788
出版年: 2014
卷: 34, 期:7, 页码:117-124
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 国际气候谈判 ; 序贯决策博弈 ; 博弈树相关均衡 ; 哥本哈根协议 ; 相机调整
英文关键词: international climate negotiation ; sequential games ; tree-correlated equilibrium ; Copenhagen Protocol ; discretion
WOS学科分类: SOCIOLOGY
WOS研究方向: Sociology
中文摘要: 哥本哈根议程凸显出发展中国家与发达国家在国际气候谈判的博弈冲突性.借鉴Forgo的博弈树相关均衡概念,发展中国家和发达囯家作为国际气候谈判主体,划分京都议定书时期,哥本哈根协议时期和未来长久时期,建立了哥本哈根国际气候谈判的序贯决策博弈模型.根据2007年IPCC第一工作组《第四次评估报告》的研究结论,建立CO_2浓度与全球气温的线性回归模型和ARMA(4,2)预测模型,得出长期目标下各种减排路径的CO_2浓度贡献值.结合谈判设定各国温室气体减排率,计算各减排路径的全球气温变化,运用线性规划GHGAME求解博弈树相关均衡结果.研究表明,根据前一时期减排进展采取相机调整的国际气候谈判方案,减排效果要好于谈判初期采取一揽子解决的方案;发达国家是否率先切实履行减排承诺,对全球气候变化控制效果至关重要.
英文摘要: The agenda of Copenhagen in the international climate negotiation underlines the conflict between developed and developing countries. Learning from the tree-correlated equilibrium concept introduced by Forgo (2005), the paper chooses the developed countries group and the developing countries group as two bodies of international climate negotiation. The international climate negotiation will be divided into three periods: the Kyoto protocol period (2000-2012), the Copenhagen protocol period (2013-2020) and the forever period (2021-2200). So the sequential games model of the developing countries group and developed countries group about Copenhagen climate negotiation is built. According to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, the linear regression model between carbon dioxide concentration and global temperature and the prediction model of ARMA(4,2) are built, then the contribution values of carbon dioxide concentration for various emission branches in 2200 are obtained. The global temperatures under various emission branches are computed with the corresponding emission reduction rates. The solution of tree-correlated equilibrium is obtained by GHGAME linear programming. The results show that the international climate negotiating plan in terms of discretion according to the prior period progress is better than the package solution at the preliminary stage. Whether developed countries meet their responsibilities to cut emissions or not decides what happens to the control effect of global climate change.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/148525
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作者单位: 东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心, 大连, 辽宁 116025, 中国

Recommended Citation:
王维国,刘德海,宋雯彦,等. 哥本哈根国际气候谈判的博弈树相关均衡分析[J]. 系统工程理论与实践,2014-01-01,34(7):117-124
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