globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5059706
论文题名:
海平面上升影响下长江口滨海湿地脆弱性评价
其他题名: Vulnerability assessment on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under sea-level rise
作者: 崔利芳; 王宁; 葛振鸣; 张利权
刊名: 应用生态学报
ISSN: 1001-9332
出版年: 2014
卷: 25, 期:2, 页码:1184-1200
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; 海平面上升 ; SPRC 模式 ; 脆弱性评价 ; 长江口滨海湿地
英文关键词: climate change ; sea-level rise ; SPRC model ; vulnerability assessment ; coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary
WOS学科分类: ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
中文摘要: 研究滨海湿地对气候变化的响应,评估气候变化对其影响,并提出切实可行的应对策略,是保障海岸带生态系统安全的重要前提.本研究以长江口滨海湿地为对象,采用源-途径-受体-影响模型和IPCC脆弱性定义分析了气候变化引起的海平面上升对滨海湿地生态系统的主要影响.构建了基于海平面上升速率、地面沉降速率、生境高程、生境淹水阈值和沉积速率为指标的脆弱性评价指标体系.在GIS平台上量化各脆弱性指标,计算脆弱性指数并分级,建立了海平面上升影响下滨海湿地生态系统脆弱性的定量空间评估方法,实现了在不同海平面上升情景(近30年长江口沿海平均海平面上升速率和IPCC排放情景特别报告中的A1F1情景)和时间尺度(2030和2050年)下,长江口滨海湿地生态系统脆弱性的定量空间评价.结果表明:在近30年长江口平均海平面上升速率(0.26 cm·a~(-1))情景下,至2030年,研究区轻度脆弱和中度脆弱的滨海湿地分别占6.6%和0.1%;至2050年,轻度脆弱和中度脆弱的滨海湿地分别占9.8%和0.2%.在A_1F_1(0.59 cm·a~(-1))情景下,至2030年,轻度脆弱和中度脆弱的滨海湿地面积比例分别为9.0%和0.1%;至2050年,轻度脆弱、中度脆弱和高度脆弱的面积比例分别为9.5%、1.0%和0.3%.
英文摘要: To study the response of coastal wetlands to climate change, assess the impacts of climate change on the coastal wetlands and formulate feasible and practical mitigation strategies are the important prerequisite for securing coastal ecosystems. In this paper, the possible impacts of sea level rise caused by climate change on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary were analyzed by the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) model and IPCC definition on the vulnerability. An indicator system for vulnerability assessment was established, in which sea-level rise rate, subsidence rate, habitat elevation, inundation threshold of habitat and sedimentation rate were selected as the key indicators. A quantitatively spatial assessment method based on the GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability index for the assessment of coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under the scenarios of sea-level rise. The vulnerability assessments on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary in 2030 and 2050 were performed under two sea-level rise scenarios (the present sea-level rise trend over recent 30 years and IPCC A_1F_1 scenario) . The results showed that with the projection in 2030 under the present trend of sea-level rise (0. 26 cm·a~(-1)), 6. 6% and 0. 1% of the coastal wetlands were in the low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively; and in 2050, 9. 8% and 0. 2% of the coastal wetlands were in low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively. With the projection in 2030 under the A_1F_1 scenario (0. 59 cm·a~(-1)), 9. 0% and 0. 1% of the coastal wetlands were in the low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively; and in 2050, 9. 5%, 1. 0% and 0. 3% of the coastal wetlands were in the low, moderate and high vulnerabilities, respectively.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/148573
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 华东师范大学, 河口海岸学国家重点实验室, 上海 200062, 中国

Recommended Citation:
崔利芳,王宁,葛振鸣,等. 海平面上升影响下长江口滨海湿地脆弱性评价[J]. 应用生态学报,2014-01-01,25(2):1184-1200
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