Simulation of the Heat Injury on Rice Production in Jiangsu Province Under the Climate Change Scenarios II : Adaptability Analysis of the Rice to Heat Injury From Booting to Heading Stage
Using the calibrated and combined CERES-Rice model and the weather data in the 2020s (2011-2040) of A2 and Al B climate change scenarios under the multi-model dataset of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3), the adaptability of the rice to heat injury from booting to heading stage in Jiangsu province was studied by the means of the sowing date change (6d, 12d, 18d in advance, 6d, 12d, 18d delayed) and the cultivar parameter adjustment (G4 = 1. 03, 1. 06, 1. 09, 1. 12, 1. 15). The results showed that, when the rice sowing date was 12d and 18d in advance, the rice yield increased most and the flowering date and growth period was extended compared with the baseline (1961 -1990). On the contrary, when the sowing date was delayed, the rice yield declined and the flowering and growth period was shortened. Gaoyou was the biggest yield increase region and the yield increased by 13% under the A1B scenario, Lvsi was the biggest yield increase region under the A2 scenario, whose yield increased by 14%. When the G4 value was adjusted between 1. 09 and 1. 15, the rice yield of all station increased. The rice yield of Gaoyou increased 11% under the Al B scenario and the Ganyu station increased 7% under the A2 scenario. The growth period and flowering date were mainly extended. The rice yield increased more obvious while the sowing date was 12d in advance and the cultivar parameter G4 value was at 1. 1. So, changing the sowing date and the cultivar parameter can improve the rice adaptability to the heat injury, which has the certain guide significance for the future rice production in Jiangsu province.