globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5139746
论文题名:
海河流域基于多模式的未来气候变化趋势
其他题名: Variation Trend of Future Climate for the Hai River Basin Based on Multiple GCMs Projections
作者: 王国庆1; 张建云1; 李岩2; 鲍振鑫1; 金君良1; 严小林1; 刘翠善1
刊名: 资源科学
ISSN: 1007-7588
出版年: 2014
卷: 36, 期:5, 页码:127-140
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 海河流域 ; RCP排放情景 ; 降水 ; 气温 ; 变化趋势
英文关键词: Hai River basin ; RCPs scenario ; precipitation ; temperature ; variation trend
WOS学科分类: MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
中文摘要: 根据国家气候中心提供的7个气候模式在3种RCP排放情景的情景资料,分析了海河流域未来30~50年气候的可能变化趋势。结果表明,海河流域未来气温将持续升高,RCP26、RCP45和RCP85情景下的线性升率约为(0.07~0.59)℃/10a、(0.18~0.45)℃/10a 和(0.33~0.65)℃/10a。未来降水变化具有较大的不确定性,与基准期(1961-1990年)相比,未来海河流域降水可能呈现增加趋势,3种排放情景下2021-2050年降水量较基准期分别增加3.4%、6.8%和3.4%左右。在季节分配上,冬春季节气温升幅较大,春夏季节升温幅度相对较小;非汛期降水的相对变化幅度大于汛期的相对变化幅度。在空间分布上,升温幅度自南向北依次递增;降水变化幅度自西北向东南递减。
英文摘要: Global warming and its impacts have attracted increasing attention from national governments,local communities and scientists. However,uncertainty has been an unavoidable issue in climate change projections when using a single GCM scenario so multiple GCMs projections are commonly used to analyze future climate change. Here,future climate change in the Hai River basin was analyzed using RCP climate scenarios of seven GCMs offered by CMA. Results show that temperature continues to rise over the next 30~50 years,with linear rising ranges of(0.07~0.59)℃ /10a,(0.18~0.45)℃ /10a and(0.33~0.65)℃ /10a under RCP26,RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios respectively. Future precipitation change shows great uncertainty and annual precipitation under the three RCP scenarios is projected to increase by 3.1%,6.8% and 3.4% during 2021-2050 compared to the baseline of 1961-1990. Temperature in winter and spring will increase higher than that in summer and autumn;while the relative change in precipitation in the dry season is much higher than that for the flood season. On the spatial distribution,the rise in temperature tends to increase from south to north,and precipitation change declines from northwest to southeast in general. The likely increase in precipitation may lead to increases in river runoff to some extent. However,with rapid development of the economy and rises in temperature,future water demands may increase and the contradiction between water supply and demand will probably be aggravated. Therefore,construction of a water-saving society and strict water resource management is essential to better adapt to climate change.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/148889
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.南京水利科学研究院, 水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室
2.水利部应对气候变化研究中心, 南京, 江苏 210029, 中国
3.水利部水文局, 水利部应对气候变化研究中心, 北京 100053, 中国

Recommended Citation:
王国庆,张建云,李岩,等. 海河流域基于多模式的未来气候变化趋势[J]. 资源科学,2014-01-01,36(5):127-140
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