globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5280544
论文题名:
基于多BPNN敏感性分析的气候变化脆弱性指标赋权方法
其他题名: Weighting approach of the climate change vulnerability index based on multi BPNNs' sensitivity analysis
作者: 张质明; 马文林; 张明顺; 黎学琴
刊名: 自然灾害学报
ISSN: 1004-4574
出版年: 2014
卷: 23, 期:5, 页码:128-137
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 赋权 ; 气候变化 ; 脆弱性 ; 反向传播神经网络(BPNN) ; 敏感性分析
英文关键词: weighting ; climate change ; vulnerability ; back-propagation neural netword (BPNN) ; sensitivity analysis
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 为尽量减小气候变化脆弱性评估中对指标权重的人为干扰,通过对某市卫生领域的气候变化脆弱性的评价案例,提出了一种基于多反向传播神经网络(BPNN)敏感性分析的气候变化脆弱性指标赋权方法。结果表明:多组BPNN拟合与泛化能力普遍较好,且每个模型敏感性分析结果具有一致性,总敏感性指数远大于一阶敏感性指数,反映了气候指标巨大潜在影响。所提出的敏感性分析具有较好的稳定性;该方法能够有效识别出气候指标的直接影响及间接影响,可以为指标权值的确定提供参考。
英文摘要: To reduce the man-made interference in weighting the climate change vulnerability index,a weighting approach based on multi back propagation neural networks' (BPNN) global sensitivity analysis (SA) was presented through a case study of climate change assessment in hygienic field. The results show that, the BPNN fits well with a great generalization ability, each BPNNs SA result has uniformity, and the total sensitivity index is much higher than the first order sensitivity index. The fact shows that,the sensitivity analysis of the great potential influence on the climate factor presented in this paper has high stability, it can effectively identify the direct and indirect influence of the climate factors,and thus can provide a reference to the determination of the index weight.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/148914
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作者单位: 北京建筑大学, 北京应对气候变化研究和人才培养基地, 北京 100044, 中国

Recommended Citation:
张质明,马文林,张明顺,等. 基于多BPNN敏感性分析的气候变化脆弱性指标赋权方法[J]. 自然灾害学报,2014-01-01,23(5):128-137
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