globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5384094
论文题名:
锡林河近50年径流变化特征及其影响因素分析
其他题名: Analysis of runoff variations and impact factors in Xilinhe River Basin in recent 50 years
作者: 杨立哲; 钱虹; 郝璐
刊名: 草业科学
ISSN: 1001-0629
出版年: 2015
卷: 32, 期:3, 页码:13-17
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 径流 ; 气候变化 ; 降水 ; 锡林河流域
英文关键词: runoff ; climate change ; precipitation ; Xilinhe River Basin
WOS学科分类: FORESTRY
WOS研究方向: Forestry
中文摘要: 利用锡林河流域近50年径流资料,采用M-K趋势分析以及降雨径流双累积曲线分析方法,检测了流域径流量的变化趋势及其潜在影响因素。结果表明,1)近50年期间,年径流量有微弱降低趋势(P>0.05)。但分阶段看,1958-1990年30年期间有显著的降低趋势(P<0.05);进入90年代之后,径流量较前期明显偏高;21世纪初,径流量又有显著下降趋势(P<0.05)。流域径流的年内变化呈现中纬度半干旱区特有的、分别由融雪和降水形成的双峰型径流过程。2)锡林河流域近50年来呈现降水减少、气温升高的暖干化气候趋势,在大多数季节,蒸发量有明显上升趋势,而降水量有下降趋势,这种特征在7月与9月表现得更为明显。这表明,流域暖干化的气候变化趋势是改变径流的时序和量值的重要因素之一,其中,汛期降水量的改变对流域多年径流量的变化起了主导作用,冬春季气候变暖虽然导致冰雪融水增加,但只起到了辅助作用。3)流域径流系数自20世纪60年代以来有所下降,80年代降至最低,表明同样的降水量产生的径流量在减少,进入90年代后,径流系数有所回升,之后到了21世纪初,又有明显下降。同时,降水径流双累积曲线分析也表明,与60年代相比,径流量累积值自70年代起开始有明显的偏离,进入80年代后,偏移尤其明显,之后又有所缓和。径流系数的变化与降水径流双累积曲线的结果均表明,流域径流量的变化不仅受到了降水等气候因素的影响,人类活动以及下垫面变化等也是其变化的潜在影响因素。
英文摘要: Based on runoff and meteorology observation data of Xilinhe River,the characteristics and variations of runoff and climate in the basin were examined by M-K trend analysis and double mass curve method. The results showed that the runoff in Xilinhe River Basin in recent 50 years slightly reduced (P > 0. 05), while runoff significantly decreased (P < 0. 05) from 1958 to 1990. After 1990s,annual runoff was significantly higher than that in the early period. At the beginning of 21th century,runoff significantly declined (P < 0. 05). Seasonal variations of runoff presented the bimodal runoff process which was specific in the mid-latitude semi-arid areas and formed by snowmelt and precipitation,respectively. There was an evidence suggested that Xilinhe River Basin was turning to dry and warm during these 50 years with reducing precipitation and increasing temperature. In most seasons,evaporation increased and precipitation decreased especially from July to September during recent five decades. These observations suggested that dry and warm climate was one of the important factors that changed the timing and quantity of the runoff. The change of precipitation in flood season had a leading role and the ice and snow melting in warming winter had a supporting role to the change of river basin runoff. Runoff coefficient declined since the 1960s and reached to the lowest during the 1980s,which suggested that the less runoff was produced by the same rainfall. The runoff coefficient increased in the 1990s and decreased again at the beginning of 21th century. The double cumulative curve showed that compared with the 1960s,the accumulated value of runoff had significant deviation since the 1970s,especially after the 1980s which indicated that the runoff in the basin was not only impacted by precipitation,but also affected by human activities. The dry and warm climate and increasing human activity were the main reasons of the water cycle change in the Xilinhe River Basin.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/149016
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 南京信息工程大学,生态气象与环境中心, 江苏省农业气象重点实验室, 南京, 江苏 210044, 中国

Recommended Citation:
杨立哲,钱虹,郝璐. 锡林河近50年径流变化特征及其影响因素分析[J]. 草业科学,2015-01-01,32(3):13-17
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