globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5378378
论文题名:
60年来中国农业水热气候条件的时空变化
其他题名: The spatio-temporal change of agricultural hydrothermal conditions in China from 1951 to 2010
作者: 宁晓菊1; 秦耀辰1; 崔耀平1; 李旭1; 陈友民1
刊名: 地理学报
ISSN: 0375-5444
出版年: 2015
卷: 70, 期:3, 页码:1348-1356
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 温度 ; 降水 ; 农业水热气候条件 ; 时空变化 ; 中国
英文关键词: temperature ; precipitation ; agricultural hydrothermal conditions ; spatio- temporal change ; China
WOS学科分类: MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
中文摘要: 根据1951-2010年中国824个气象站点逐日观测数据选取与农作物生长密切相关的农业气候指标,按照年代将各指标站点数据空间化,求取前后期数据变化差值,分析中国农业水热气候条件的时空变化;进而对农业水热气候条件进行线性拟合,分析农业气候变化倾向。研究发现:60年来全国年平均气温、0 ℃积温和最冷月平均气温等值线均在不同程度上向北迁移,三者在全国大部分区域表现为显著增加趋势;全国最热月平均气温分成明显的下降和上升区,显著上升区集中在东北地区、内蒙古高原与东南沿海,黄河与长江中下游地区成为下降区;全国年降水量的增加趋势并没有通过显著检验。虽然对中国农业分布格局至关重要的400 mm等降水量线南段和800 mm等降水量线在整体上相对稳定,但是黄河与长江中下游地区最热月平均气温的下降趋势和最冷月平均气温等值线尤其是0 ℃等值线逐渐从秦岭淮河一带北移到黄河一线,这对中国作物的分布、耕作制度等会产生重要影响。因此,高温、低温与农作物生长期热量供应以及水分的复杂变化对农业的影响将因区域差异与作物种类而变化,后续的研究可以考虑更多因素来分析农作物的适宜种植范围及区域农业对气候变化的适应。
英文摘要: Based on the daily observation data of 824 meteorological stations during 1951-2010 released by national meteorological information center, this paper evaluates the change of heat, moisture and winter conditions for crop growth. In this paper, we, taking the average over ten years as a value, analyze the spatial and temporal variations of the agricultural hydrothermal conditions in a 1-km grid. Then we build the regression equations of agricultural hydrothermal conditions to simulate the change trend over years. The main conclusions are summarized as follows. (1) The annual mean temperature, mean temperature in the coldest month and accumulated temperatures of the daily mean temperature ≥0℃ increased significantly for most parts of China, whose contours moved northward in the past 60 years. (2) The mean temperature in the hottest month can be identified into the falling region and rising region, the latter is distributed in Northeast China, Inner Mongolia Plateau and the coast of southeast China. The middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and the Yangtze River belong to the region in a remarkable reduction. (3) The annual precipitation has an increasing trend, but it is inconspicuous. (4) The contours of 800 mm rainfall and the southern of 400mm rainfall were stable between 1951 and 2010, which determined the distribution pattern of agricultural production of China. However, the mean temperature in the hottest month of the middle and lower reaches of both the Yellow and Yangtze rivers had a decreasing trend from 1951 to 2010, and the contour of mean temperature in the coldest month shifted northward, in particular, the 0℃ contour gradually moved to the yellow line by the region of Qinling-Huaihe River. This had a major impact on the distribution of crops as well as on the farming system. Thus, the complex change of high temperature, low temperature, and heat supply in the crop growing period and water had impact on the agricultural production, which would change due to the regional differences and crop characteristics. We will study the suitable cultivation of crop in the background of global climate change by considering more factors and then explore the adaptability of regional agriculture to climate change.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/149125
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.河南大学环境与规划学院, 黄河中下游数字地理技术教育部重点实验室
2.中原经济区 三化协调发展河南省协同创新中心, 开封, 河南 475004, 中国

Recommended Citation:
宁晓菊,秦耀辰,崔耀平,等. 60年来中国农业水热气候条件的时空变化[J]. 地理学报,2015-01-01,70(3):1348-1356
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[宁晓菊]'s Articles
[秦耀辰]'s Articles
[崔耀平]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[宁晓菊]'s Articles
[秦耀辰]'s Articles
[崔耀平]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[宁晓菊]‘s Articles
[秦耀辰]‘s Articles
[崔耀平]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.