globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5573040
论文题名:
我国华西秋雨的气候变化规律及其影响因子
其他题名: Climate Variation of Huaxi Autumn Rain and the Impact Factors Influencing It
作者: 王春学1; 马振峰1; 邵鹏程2; 王佳津3; 方思达4
刊名: 干旱区研究
ISSN: 1001-4675
出版年: 2015
卷: 32, 期:6, 页码:14-24
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; 华西秋雨 ; 时空变化 ; 周期 ; 预测模型
英文关键词: climate change ; Huaxi Autumn Rain ; temporal and spatial variation ; cycle ; forecasting model
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 采用经验正交函数展开(EOF) 、多锥度方法和奇异值分解(MTM-SVD)等方法,分析我国华西秋雨的气候变化规律及其影响因子。研究表明:我国华西秋雨EOF分析第一模态为全区一致型,解释方差贡献率为57.7%,是华西秋雨异常的主模态。我国华西秋雨在年际变化尺度上具有显著的准4 a周期;在年代际变化尺度上具有显著的准12 a周期。周期循环重建显示,准4 a循环的4个位相异常分布都与华西秋雨主模态类似,准12 a周期循环中的8个位相异常分布与主模态类似。南海副高强度指数、印缅槽指数、南方涛动指数和Nino 4区海温指数与华西秋雨强度在年际和年代际尺度上都有很好的相关关系。利用相关分析初步建立了多尺度、多因子的华西秋雨强度趋势预测模型,对比验证表明,该模型具有一定的预测能力。
英文摘要: The climate variation of Huaxi Autumn Rain and its impact factors are analyzed using the methods of empirical orthogonal function(EOF) and multi-taper method and singular value decomposition. The results of EOF analysis of Huaxi Autumn Rain show that the spatial distribution of the first characteristic vector is consistent in all areas. The variance contribution of the first principal is 57.7% which is the primary mode. Cycle analysis indicates that Huaxi autumn rain has significant quasi-4-year cycle on the interannual variability scale and quasi-12-year cycle on the decadal variability scale. Cycle reconstruction shows that the abnormal distribution of all of the 4 phases in the quasi-4 year cycle are similar to the main model. The 8 phases in the quasi-12 year cycle are also similar to the main model. On interannual and decadal scales there exists good correlation between South China Sea subtropical high intensity index, India-Burma trough index, the Southern Oscillation Index,Nino 4 SST index and the intensity of Huaxi autumn rain. By using of the correlation analysis, the multiple factors and multiple variations statistic prediction mode of Huaxi autumn rain intensity is initially established.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/149363
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.四川省气候中心, 高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室, 成都, 四川 610072, 中国
2.国家气候中心, 北京 100081, 中国
3.高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室, 高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室, 成都, 四川 610072, 中国
4.武汉区域气候中心, 武汉, 湖北 430074, 中国

Recommended Citation:
王春学,马振峰,邵鹏程,等. 我国华西秋雨的气候变化规律及其影响因子[J]. 干旱区研究,2015-01-01,32(6):14-24
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[王春学]'s Articles
[马振峰]'s Articles
[邵鹏程]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[王春学]'s Articles
[马振峰]'s Articles
[邵鹏程]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[王春学]‘s Articles
[马振峰]‘s Articles
[邵鹏程]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.