globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5539139
论文题名:
近百年中国北方沿海地区气温年代际变化及趋势预测
其他题名: Interdecadal Variability and Trend Projection in Air Temperature in the Coastal Regions of the Northern China
作者: 齐浩1; 张文2; 张苏平1
刊名: 海洋湖沼通报
ISSN: 1003-6482
出版年: 2015
期: 3, 页码:1456-1465
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气温 ; 全球变暖 ; 平均环流形势
英文关键词: PDO ; CMIP5 ; air temperature ; global warming ; PDO ; averaged circulation ; CMIP5
WOS学科分类: OCEANOGRAPHY
WOS研究方向: Oceanography
中文摘要: 以青岛为例,利用近百年的月平均气温资料,通过统计的方法分析了中国北方沿海地区四季气温变化,分析了气温年代际变化与太平洋海温以及太平洋海温年代际振荡(PDO)的关系,着重分析了气温正负位相年北半球平均环流形势和海平面气温。最后利用CMIP5模式数据预测青岛气候未来的变化趋势。结果表明:中国北方近海地区气温呈上升趋势,冬季温度上升幅度最大,夏季升温最小,气温变化与附近海域海温显著相关。各季节气温有年代际和50a变化周期,在年代际变化周期上与PDO周期有较好的同期和滞后相关性,春季和夏季尤为明显。青岛气温正负位相年平均环流形势明显相反,并且与北半球海平面气温异常联系紧密。全球变暖背景下,未来青岛气温仍将持续上升。
英文摘要: The data in the recent 100 years in Qingdao observatory,which can represent the situations in coastal regions in North China,is used to analyze the interdecadal variability in temperature in four seasons. The relations between the temperature and the PDO index,the averaged atmospheric circulations and the sea surface temperature(SST)are investigated.Based on the analysis,the trend in temperature in the future is projected under the conditions of global warming using CMIP5.It is found that in the recent 100 years,the temperature in coastal area of North China rises with maximum in winter and minimum in summer.The rising is closely related with the SST in the marginal seas and in the northwestern Pacific.The interdecadal variability in temperature is consistent with the PDO cycle.The averaged circulations are dramatically opposite in the positive and negative phases of the PDO cycle and the temperature in Qingdao.Under the conditions of global warming,the temperature probably further rises.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/149444
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.中国海洋大学海洋环境学院, 青岛, 山东 266100, 中国
2.山东农业工程学院信息科学与工程系, 济南, 山东 250100, 中国

Recommended Citation:
齐浩,张文,张苏平. 近百年中国北方沿海地区气温年代际变化及趋势预测[J]. 海洋湖沼通报,2015-01-01(3):1456-1465
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