globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5355120
论文题名:
近52年北疆气候变化对棉花种植气候适宜性分区的影响
其他题名: Impact of Climate Change on Cotton-planting Zoning in Northern Xinjiang During 19612012
作者: 李景林1; 普宗朝2; 张山清1; 王命全1; 李新建1; 徐文修3
刊名: 棉花学报
ISSN: 1002-7807
出版年: 2015
卷: 27, 期:1, 页码:1509-1524
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; ≥10℃积温 ; 7月份平均气温 ; 无霜冻期 ; 棉花区划 ; 北疆
英文关键词: climate change ; annual accumulated temperature of ≥ 10℃ ; July mean temperature ; frost-free period ; cotton cotton-planting zoning ; northern Xinjiang
WOS学科分类: AGRONOMY
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
中文摘要: 基于北疆52个气象台站19612012年逐年≥10℃积温、最热月(7月)平均气温和无霜冻期资料,使用ArcGIS空间插值技术对上述各热量要素的空间分布进行模拟,使用线性趋势和年代间比较对近52年各热量要素的变化进行分析,结合棉花气候分区指标,完成了19611970年、19711980年、1981 1990年、1991 2000年和2001-2012年5个时段的北疆棉花种植气候适宜性分区;并对比分析了各时段宜棉区、次宜棉区、风险棉区和不宜棉区分布区域和面积的变化。结果表明:北疆热量资源的空间分布总体呈现平原和盆地多,山区少的特点;在气候变暖背景下,近52年北疆≥10℃积温、7月份平均气温和无霜冻期分别以每10年75.657 ℃、0.218 ℃和4.36 d的斜率呈显著的上升趋势,并且20世纪90年代以来上升速率呈增大趋势。受其影响,近52年,尤其是20世纪90年代以来,北疆宜棉区面积明显扩大,次宜棉区和不宜棉区有所减小,风险棉区变化不大。20012012年与20世纪60年代相比,宜棉区面积扩大了6.54164*10~4km~2;次宜棉区和不宜棉区分别缩小了0.99982*10~4km~2和5.28675*10~4km~2。
英文摘要: Based on the data of annual accumulated temperature of ≥ 10℃,July mean temperature and frost-free period from 52 meteorological stations in northern Xinjiang during 19612012, the spatial distributions of heat resources were analyzed by using mixed interpolation method based on ArcGIS, the change trends of heat elements were studied by using the linear regression method, and the variations in different periods of 1961 1970, 1971 1980,1981 1990,1991 2000 and 2001 2012 were analyzed also. Based on the above analyses, the cotton-planting climate zoning for northern Xinjiang in different periods were completed respectively with the climate indicators of cotton-planting zoning. And the variation of areas suitable, secondly suitable, risk and unsuitable for cotton in different periods were contrasted and analyzed. The main results were as follows: Heat resource was very obviously different in different regions of northern Xinjiang, generally, annual accumulated temperature of ≥ 10 ℃, July mean temperature and frost-free period were higher or longer in plain and basin areas than in mountain areas. In the background of global warming, the three indicators showed an increasing trend with rates of 75.657 ℃, 0.218℃ and 4.36 d every 10 years respectively in recent 52 years. Under the joint effects of the above-mentioned climate factors, the areas suitable for cotton planting had a substantial expansion, and the areas secondly suitable and unsuitable for cotton reduced to different extents, but the areas risk for cotton planting did not change significantly. Compared with 1960s, the areas suitable for cotton plant ing increased 6.54164*10~4km~2, and the areas risk and unsuitable for cotton reduced by 0.99982*10~4 km~2 and 5.28675*10~4 km~2 respectively in 20012012. It is important to promote the development of cotton industry in the areas suitable for cotton planting increased in northern Xinjiang.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/149577
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.新疆农业气象台, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830002, 中国
2.新疆乌鲁木齐市气象局, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830002, 中国
3.新疆农业大学农学院, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830052, 中国

Recommended Citation:
李景林,普宗朝,张山清,等. 近52年北疆气候变化对棉花种植气候适宜性分区的影响[J]. 棉花学报,2015-01-01,27(1):1509-1524
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