globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5453595
论文题名:
气候变化和人类活动综合影响下的抚河流域径流模拟研究
其他题名: Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff with HSPF for the Fuhe River Basin
作者: 邓晓宇1; 张强1; 陈晓宏1
刊名: 武汉大学学报. 理学版
ISSN: 1671-8836
出版年: 2015
卷: 61, 期:3, 页码:169-174,181
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 径流 ; 气候变化 ; 人类活动 ; 流域水文模拟程序 ; 抚河流域
英文关键词: runoff ; climate change ; human activities ; hydrological simulation program-fortran(HSPF) ; Fuhe River basin
WOS学科分类: GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Geology
中文摘要: 1960年代以来,由于人类活动与气候变化的综合影响,使抚河流域地表水文过程发生显著变化.基于此,本文在趋势分析的基础上,以1960~1970年为基准期,利用流域水文模拟程序(hydrological simulation program- fortran,HSPF)定量分析了1971~1980年、1981~1990年、1991~2000年、2001~2005年4个时段该流域气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响.结果表明:1)1960年以来,抚河流域气温显著变化,而降水、径流深、径流系数等无显著变化;2)相对于基准期1960~1970年,1971~1980年、1981~1990年、1991~2000年、2001~2005年气候变化导致径流量平均增加24.25亿m~3,而人类活动则导致径流量平均减少18.62亿m~3;气候变化对径流的影响在1970年代和2000年代处于较低水平,在1980年代和1990年代处于较高水平;人类活动对径流的影响,在1970年代处于一个较低水平,而1980年代以后明显增大;3)在气候变化影响因素中,流域降水量是主要影响因子;人类活动影响因素包括土地利用方式的变化以及水利工程的修建;抚河流域下游修建的水利工程是人类活动影响因素中的重要影响因子.
英文摘要: Influenced by human activities and climate change,the upper hydrologic process has changed significantly in Fuhe River basin.Thus,based on the trend analysis,we defined 1960-1970 asbaseline period,and analyzed the impacts of climate change and human activities on hydrological processes quantitatively between 1971-1980,1981-1990,1991-2000 and 2001-2005 periods,using the hydrological simulation program-fortran(HSPF).Results indicate that:1)there is a significant trend in average temperature,but no significant trend in annual precipitation,runoff depth or runoff coefficient since 1960;2) climate change has increased the annual runoff by 2.425 billion m~3/10a on average for 1971-1980,1981-1990,1991-2000, 2001-2005,compared with baseline period 1960~1970;human activities,however,decreased the annual runoff by-1.862 billion m~3/10a on average for the same periods.The impacts of climate change on annual runoff kept on a low level in 1970s and 2000s but a high level in 1980s and 1990s,while the impacts of human activities on annual runoff stayed on a low level in 1970s yet a high level since then;3)among the factors of climate change,precipitation is the main one;human activities include changes of land use type and construction of water project;the water project in the lower reaches of Fuhe River plays an important role among human activities.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/150030
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作者单位: 1.中山大学水资源与环境系, 水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室
2.广东省城市化与地理环境空间模拟重点实验室, 广州, 广东 510275, 中国

Recommended Citation:
邓晓宇,张强,陈晓宏. 气候变化和人类活动综合影响下的抚河流域径流模拟研究[J]. 武汉大学学报. 理学版,2015-01-01,61(3):169-174,181
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