globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5476789
论文题名:
我国极端降水阈值确定方法的对比研究
其他题名: A Comparison of Methods for Benchmarking the Threshold of Daily Precipitation Extremes in China
作者: 迟潇潇; 尹占娥; 王轩; 孙钰科
刊名: 灾害学
ISSN: 1000-811X
出版年: 2015
卷: 30, 期:3, 页码:1742-1751
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 极端降水 ; 阈值 ; 中国
英文关键词: DFA ; precipitation extremes ; thresholds ; DFA ; China
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 在全球变暖趋势下,极端降水频发,引起了国内外学者的广泛关注,而极端降水阈值的确定是研究极端降水事件的起点。基于中国499个气象站点1960-2009年的逐日降水数据,采用 DFA 法、百分位法和 Pearson-III 概率分析法,对中国各站点及区域的极端降水阈值进行对比分析。结果表明:DFA 法确定的极端降水阈值远大于百分位法确定的极端降水阈值,约为 Pearson-III 两年一遇情景下的极端降水;中国极端降水阈值从东南沿海向西北内陆递减,其中四川盆地边缘地区、长江中下游流域地区和华南地区南部极端降水阈值最大;南方地区、北方地区、青藏地区和西北地区的建议极端降水阈值分别为80 mm、50 mm、25 mm 和20~25 mm。
英文摘要: Precipitation extremes have become more frequent under global warming,which attract widely attention of scholars at home and abroad,and the appropriate threshold is the first step of studying precipitation extremes.In this paper,we use data sets of daily precipitation recorded in 499 meteorological stations,through the comparison of DFA method,percentile method and Pearson-III distribution to define the proper threshold for each station and each region.Results show that:Thresholds calculated by DFA are much higher than the percentile method and the values are around the return period of two years.Thresholds decreasing from southeastern coastal areas to northwestern inlands and thresholds are the highest in Sichuan Basin,middle and lower Yangtze River and southern part of South China.Our suggest thresholds in four major regions-South China,North China,Qinghai-Tibet Region and Northwest China are 80mm,50mm,25mm and 15 ~25mm.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/150145
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 上海师范大学旅游学院地理系, 上海 200234, 中国

Recommended Citation:
迟潇潇,尹占娥,王轩,等. 我国极端降水阈值确定方法的对比研究[J]. 灾害学,2015-01-01,30(3):1742-1751
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[迟潇潇]'s Articles
[尹占娥]'s Articles
[王轩]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[迟潇潇]'s Articles
[尹占娥]'s Articles
[王轩]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[迟潇潇]‘s Articles
[尹占娥]‘s Articles
[王轩]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.