globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5549338
论文题名:
基于水热耦合平衡方程的黄河流域径流变化归因分析
其他题名: Attribution analysis for runoff decline in Yellow River Basin during past fifty years based on Budyko hypothesis
作者: 杨大文1; 张树磊1; 徐翔宇2
刊名: 中国科学. 技术科学
ISSN: 1674-7259
出版年: 2015
卷: 45, 期:10, 页码:1788-1796
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 黄河径流变化 ; 归因分析 ; 气候变化 ; 下垫面变化 ; 流域水热耦合平衡方程
英文关键词: catchment runoff reduction ; attribution analysis ; climate change ; landscape change ; coupled energy-water balance equation
WOS学科分类: GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Geology
中文摘要: 选择黄河流域38个典型子流域为研究对象,基于流域水热耦合平衡模型,计算了各流域径流对气候和下垫面变化的弹性系数;进一步针对各流域在1961~2010年间的径流变化,定量区分了气候变化和下垫面变化对各典型子流域天然径流减少的影响程度.结果表明:径流的气候弹性和下垫面弹性具有一致性,黄土高原地区的水文过程对气候和下垫面变化更加敏感.下垫面变化对绝大多数子流域的径流量减少起主导作用,特别是黄土高原地区水土保持对径流的影响不可忽视.本研究表明,基于流域水分-能量耦合平衡方程的径流弹性分析方法,对定量区分气候和下垫面变化对流域径流的影响具有广阔的应用前景.
英文摘要: Here 38 sub-catchments in Yellow River Basin have been selected to explore the driving factors for runoff decline in this region. Climate elasticity and landscape elasticity which indicate the sensitivity of runoff to climate and landscape change are calculated based on the catchment water-energy balance equation. Furthermore, we quantify the effect of climate and landscape change on mean annual water yield. Results show that the distribution of climate elasticity is consistent with landscape elasticity and regions with highest sensitivity is located in the Loess Plateau. The annual runoff had statistically negative trends in most study sub-catchments. Landscape change is the dominant forcing factor for runoff decline in most study sub-catchments, specially in the Loess Plateau. By the analysis of NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) during recent thirty years, we find that the improvement of vegetation is the dominant changes in landscape. This research indicates that it is a effective and promising application approach to quantify the effect of climate and landscape change on annual water yield based on the catchment water-energy balance equation.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/150231
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.清华大学水利水电工程系, 水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室, 北京 100084, 中国
2.水利部水电水利规划设计总院, 北京 100120, 中国

Recommended Citation:
杨大文,张树磊,徐翔宇. 基于水热耦合平衡方程的黄河流域径流变化归因分析[J]. 中国科学. 技术科学,2015-01-01,45(10):1788-1796
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