Potential of Agricultural Carbon Reduction under Climate Change and Its Spatial Correlation Characteristics in China : Based on the Spatial Durbin Model
It is an important basis of the emission reduction policies and carbon trading policy to estimate the reduction potential of regional carbon emissions scientifically and explore its spatial heterogeneity. In this paper, based on the environmental production technology, by constructing the agricultural economic system coexisting with expected and non expected output, with 31 provinces in China during the period from 2001 to 2012 as the research objects, we firstly used the directional distance function to estimate the shadow price of agricultural carbon emissions,built potential index of reducing agricultural carbon emissions,and found that there are obvious differences of the agricultural carbon emissions reduction potential levels among the 31 regions in China. Considered the space distance function with spatial weight matrix,through Moran's I test,we found that there is significant spatial dependence in the potential of agricultural carbon reduction. Then, we used the spatial Durbin model to study the spatial correlation characteristics of the potential for agricultural carbon reduction among each provinces. Results show that the level of economic development, agricultural economic development, and agricultural industrial structure exert significantly positive influences, while the degree of openess and agricultural disaster rate have an significantly negative effect on the province ' s own potential for reducing the agricultural carbon emissions. The agricultural public investment and degrees of openess positively affect the potential of agricultural carbon reduction of the surrounding provinces, while the industrial structure of agriculture has a significantly negative impact on that of the surrounding provinces. As a suggestion, we would like to encourage each province that beside implementing the work of reducing agricultural carbon in its own region by adjusting the affected factors,it's supposed to strengthen the cooperation with other provinces in carbon reduction projects,and make full use of the spillover effect of space factors to improve the efficiency of cooperation mechanism and compensation system of carbon reduction by establishing carbon trading center among the adjacent provinces.