globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5712741
论文题名:
气候变化情景下黄淮海区域热量资源及夏玉米温度适宜度
其他题名: Thermal resources and summer maize temperature suitability in the Huang-Huai-Hai region under future climate change
作者: 李萌1; 申双和1; 吕厚荃2; 韩艳3; 褚荣浩4; 沙修竹5
刊名: 大气科学学报
ISSN: 1674-7097
出版年: 2016
卷: 39, 期:3, 页码:1952-1963
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 夏玉米 ; 热量资源 ; 温度适宜度 ; 变异系数
英文关键词: summer maize ; thermal resources ; temperature suitability ; coefficient of variation
WOS学科分类: AGRICULTURE MULTIDISCIPLINARY ; AGRONOMY
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
中文摘要: 利用黄淮海区域90个站点19712000年逐日气象资料以及国家气候中心发布的未来气候变化情景(A1B)下区域气候模式(RegCM3)模拟的黄淮海区域19512070年0.25° * 0.25°格点气象资料,结合夏玉米主要生育期对温度的需求,构建了黄淮海区域的温度适宜度和变异系数模型,并对19512070年黄淮海区域热量资源、夏玉米主要生育期的温度适宜度及其变异系数的时空变化特征进行分析。结果表明:1)黄淮海区域≥10 ℃积温和80%保证率下日平均温度≥10 ℃的初日均呈现由北向南依次增加的趋势,且随时间推移,分别呈增加和提前趋势。2)黄淮海区域夏玉米播种出苗期的温度适宜度随时间整体呈逐渐上升的变化趋势、其变异系数随时间呈降升降的变化趋势;出苗抽雄期的温度适宜度随时间呈先降后升的变化趋势、其变异系数呈降升降升的变化趋势;抽雄成熟期的温度适宜度空间上呈现2010年前北低南高、未来情景下中部低四周高的分布趋势,时间上呈2010年前稳定、未来情景下先降后升的变化趋势,其变异系数呈相反变化趋势;3)黄淮海区域夏玉米温度适宜度及其变异系数从播种出苗期出苗抽雄期抽雄成熟期均呈反相位的变化关系。
英文摘要: Based on the daily meteorological data of 90 stations for the period 1971 to 2000 and daily 0.25° * 0.25° gridded meteorological data under the A1B climate scenario (19512070) extracted from the regional climate model RegCM3 released by the National Climate Center,a temperature suitability and coefficient of variation(CV) model for the Huang-Huai-Hai region was built,combing with the growth demand of summer maize for temperature. The spatial and temporal variations of thermal resources,summer maize temperature suitability and its CV in the Huang-Huai-Hai region for the period 19512070 were analyzed. The Huang-Huai-Hai area has distinct dry and wet seasons. The heat resources are particularly important for the growth of summer maize. The analysis of this region in this paper,against the background of climate change,is aimed at improving the efficiency of the utilization of climate resources,and providing a scientific basis for summer maize planting.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/150567
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.南京信息工程大学应用气象学院, 气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/江苏省农业气象重点实验室, 南京, 江苏 210044, 中国
2.中国气象局国家气象中心, 北京 100081, 中国
3.河南大学环境与规划学院, 开封, 河南 475004, 中国
4.南京信息工程大学应用气象学院, 南京, 江苏 210044, 中国
5.河南省人工影响天气领导小组办公室, 郑州, 河南 450003, 中国

Recommended Citation:
李萌,申双和,吕厚荃,等. 气候变化情景下黄淮海区域热量资源及夏玉米温度适宜度[J]. 大气科学学报,2016-01-01,39(3):1952-1963
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