globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5701188
论文题名:
过去2000年亚洲夏季风降水百年尺度变化及其区域差异的模拟分析
其他题名: SIMULATED ANALYSIS OF ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON PRECIPITATION ON CENTENNIAL TIME SCALE AND ITS REGIONAL DIFFERENCES OVER THE PAST 2000 YEARS
作者: 韩春凤1; 刘健2; 王志远1
刊名: 第四纪研究
ISSN: 1001-7410
出版年: 2016
卷: 36, 期:3, 页码:2053-2063
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 过去2000年气候模拟亚洲夏季风百年尺度 ; 归因分析
英文关键词: past 2000 years ; climate simulation ; the Asian summer monsoon ; centennial time scale ; attribution
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 利用通用地球系统模式(CESM, 1.0.3版本)进行的多个过去2000年瞬变积分试验模拟结果,初步探讨了亚洲夏季风及其子系统(东亚夏季风、印度夏季风和西北太平洋夏季风)降水百年尺度时空变化特征与成因。研究表明:1)亚洲季风区及其子区降水与温度的时间变化均基本同位相。亚洲夏季风降水存在准100年、准150年和准200年周期,东亚夏季风降水存在准200年和准100年周期,印度和西北太平洋夏季风降水均存在准100年的显著周期;太阳辐射是影响各区域夏季风降水百年际周期的主要因素,东亚和亚洲夏季风降水百年际周期还与火山活动有关。2)亚洲夏季风降水标准化EOF第一模态的空间分布型为100°E以东由北向南呈正-负-正-负的条带状分布和在100°E以西的印度季风区呈西南-东北向的正-负-正分布,该分布型主要受太阳辐射的影响;EOF第二模态呈现阿拉伯海东部、印度半岛南端和华北平原及其以东同纬地区与其他地方反相的分布型态,该分布型主要受温室气体和气候系统内部变率的共同影响;分析表明多因子间的非线性相互作用会放大对气候系统内部变率的影响。3)亚洲夏季风3个子系统降水百年尺度第一模态空间分布与亚洲夏季风降水第一模态中对应区域的分布型态相似;东亚夏季风降水主模态主要受太阳辐射和温室气体的共同影响,印度夏季风降水主模态与太阳辐射有关,西北太平洋夏季风降水主模态受除火山活动外的多因子共同影响。
英文摘要: The characteristics and attribution of the spatiotemporal variation of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) precipitation are not sufficiently understood, especially on multidecadal-centennial time scale. In recent years, climate model has been an important and effective tool to solve the problem. In this paper, we compared six experiments conducted for the past 2000 years using the Community Earth System Model (CESM, version 1.0.3) to analyze the characteristics and causes of the precipitation variation of ASM (5°~55°N, 60o~170oE) and its sub-systems on centennial time scale. The experiments include total solar irradiation experiment (TSI), volcanic eruptions experiment (Vol), greenhouse gases experiment (GHGs) and land use/land cover change experiment (LUCC),control experiment (Ctrl) and all forcings experiment (ALL). Five experiments are carried out from 1A.D. to 2000A.D. based on a 2400 years' control experiment under the A.D. 1850's initial forcing. Limited by the reconstructed volcanic data, the volcanic eruptions experiment starts from 501 A.D. and there is no volcanic forcing during 1~500A.D. in the all forcing experiment. Based on the comparison of simulated results derived from all forcings experiment with proxy records and reanalysis data, the performance of CESM in simulating climate change over Asia was verified. By the way, the sub-systems of ASM include East Asian summer monsoon (EASM, 20°~ 55°N, 105°~140°E), Indian summer monsoon (ISM, 5o~40oN, 60°~105°E) and the western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM, 5°~25°N, 105o~170oE). The precipitation and temperature mainly reflect an in phase variability on centennial time scale both over the ASM region and its sub-regions. The results of spectrum analysis show that there are three periodicities (100-yr, 150-yr and 200-yr) in the ASM precipitation, two periodicities (100-yr and 200-yr) in the EASM precipitation and the ISM and WNPSM precipitation both have a significant 100-yr period. Compared with the results of other experiments, it can be found that the total solar irradiation is the main factors of the centennial cycle of summer monsoon precipitation over these regions. Also, the volcanic eruptions are related to the centennial cycle of EASM and ASM precipitation. Then the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) is used to find out the spatial characteristic of precipitation. The spatial structure of the first mode of the ASM precipitation (EOF1) shows the plus-minus-plus-minus zonal belts over the east part of 100°E while it shows the plus-minus-plus structure from southwest to northeast over the ISM region. Meanwhile, the spatial structure of the second mode (EOF2) shows negative value over the eastern Arabian Sea, the southern Indian peninsula, the North China Plain and the east region of the plain of the same latitude and shows positive value over other regions. The following results are obtained by comparison with other experiments: The main cause of the spatial pattern of EOF1 is the total solar irradiation and the factors affecting the spatial structure of EOF2 are the greenhouse gases and the internal variability of climate system. At the same time, the nonlinear interactions between diverse factors are found to amplify the influence on the internal variability of climate system. The structures of the main modes of precipitation over three sub-systems are similar to the pattern over the same regions of the EOF1. The first mode of EASM precipitation affects by the total solar irradiation and the greenhouse gases, and the first mode of ISM precipitation is related to the total solar irradiation. Meanwhile, the first mode of WNPSM precipitation is related to diverse factors, except the volcanic eruptions. More works are needed to analyze the external forcing's influence mechanism to ASM precipitation.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/150750
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.南京师范大学地理科学学院, 虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室
2.江苏省地理环境演化国家重点实验室培育建设点, 南京, 江苏 210023, 中国
3.南京师范大学地理科学学院, 虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室
4.江苏省地理环境演化国家重点实验室培育建设点
5.江苏省大规模复杂系统数值模拟重点实验室
6.江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心, 南京, 江苏 210023, 中国

Recommended Citation:
韩春凤,刘健,王志远. 过去2000年亚洲夏季风降水百年尺度变化及其区域差异的模拟分析[J]. 第四纪研究,2016-01-01,36(3):2053-2063
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