globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5747529
论文题名:
1960~2011年中国陆地表层区域变动幅度与速率
其他题名: Amplitude and velocity of the shifts in the Chinese terrestrial surface regions from 1960 to 2011
作者: 吴绍洪1; 刘文政2; 潘韬1; 邓浩宇2; 焦珂伟2; 尹云鹤1
刊名: 科学通报
ISSN: 0023-074X
出版年: 2016
卷: 61, 期:19, 页码:22-32
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 陆地表层区域 ; 关键界线 ; 幅度 ; 速率 ; 气候变化
英文关键词: terrestrial surface region ; key boundary ; amplitude ; shift velocity ; climate change
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 气候变化背景下, 陆地表层诸要素(如温度、水分、植被、土壤等)及其之间的相互影响和作用关系发生了显著变化, 进而可能引起集成地表关键要素而划分的区域格局呈现复杂的非线性动态变化特征, 深刻影响自然物候、农业生产布局等. 然而, 对于过去50余年中国陆地表层区域变动的幅度和速率认识还不够定量化. 基于均一化的1960~2011年中国545个气象站点的逐日气温数据集, 选用日平均气温稳定310℃的日数与积温等指标来分析中国自然带格局变化特征, 以每个自然带面积及平均纬度的变化表征陆地表层区域变动的幅度; 建立了一个表征区域界线移动速率的新指标, 研究了中国陆地表层区域格局及典型区域界线变动的幅度、趋势、速率与突变. 结果表明: 20世纪60年代以来, 中国气候总体上存在由一个相对冷的时段(1960~1986年)进入一个相对暖的时段(1987~2011年)的变化特征, 推动了多数关键自然地带发生较为显著的向北移动倾向; 两个时段比较, 1987~2011年时段全国温度带普遍呈北移的趋势, 其中北亚热带北界和暖温带北界最为明显, 最大处可达200 km左右; 1960~2011年间亚热带北界东段北移1.386°N; 暖温带北界东段北移0.354°N. 前者向北移动的速率为0.533°/10 a;后者向北移动的速率为0.136°/10 a. 突变分析显示, 从1996~1997年开始, 暖温带南北界线加快向北迁移; 区域的变化明显滞后于变暖时段, 在进入相对暖的大约10年之后, 区域才明显向北移动. 气候变化在宏观地域系统的表现特征在结论中得到揭示, 可以为适应气候变化提供科学依据.
英文摘要: A terrestrial surface is characterized by a set of elements such as landform, climate, water, and soil and vegetation. The interaction of such elements forms a series of systematic regions on a terrestrial surface with a geographical zonation distribution; this is known as a terrestrial pattern. Realization of the internal relationship between the terrestrial elements and knowledge of their interaction and pattern formation would be helpful to further understand the physical geographical processes and the state of sustainable resource use and environmental protection planning. Changes in any one of the abovementioned terrestrial elements would lead to variations in the whole pattern. Currently, climate is the most variable element that could cause a shift in a terrestrial pattern. However, such transformation in a terrestrial pattern would contain a lag period. Previous studies show that Chinas climate has significantly changed, leading the other elements, such as phenology and crop planting distribution, to change as well. Consequently, the possibility of a terrestrial pattern shift has increased. A change in one element within a pattern shift would be a complicated nonlinear dynamic process. Therefore, the amplitude and velocity of a terrestrial pattern shift are the most important elements. The number of continuous days, (taken as the period of plant growing season) and accumulated temperature 310°C are the main indicators used to describe the natural zone of a terrestrial pattern. Based on the homogenized mean daily temperature record from 545 meteorological stations in China from 1960 to 2011, the number of continuous days and accumulated temperature 310°C were calculated to analyze the change in the characteristics of Chinas natural zone patterns. Changes in each natural zone and the mean latitude were calculated to represent the amplitudes of the land surface region shifts. A new function was set to represent the amplitude and velocity of regional boundary transformation. Then, the amplitudes, trends, and velocities of Chinas land surface region patterns and the typical region boundaries were calculated. The years in which significant regional shifts occurred were also identified. The results show a change in temperature states from a relative cold period (1960-1986) to a relative warm period (1987-2011); this change caused significant northward shifts of several major natural zones in China. The temperature zones in China, especially the northern boundary of the subtropical and warm temperate zones, had shifted northward during 1987-2011. During 1960-2011, the eastern part of the northern subtropical zone had moved 1.386°N. The northern and the eastern parts of the north boundary of the warm temperate zone had moved 0.354°N with velocities of 0.533°/10 a and 0.136°/10 a, respectively. The clustering of mutation testing showed that the northern boundaries of the subtropical and warm temperate zones substantially shifted northward in 1996 and 1997. Regional shifts occurred approximately 10 years after entering the relative warm period. This study has revealed the impacts of climate change on a macroscopic regional system; these findings could provide a scientific basis for climate-change adaptation.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/151063
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作者单位: 1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室, 北京 100101, 中国
2.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101, 中国

Recommended Citation:
吴绍洪,刘文政,潘韬,等. 1960~2011年中国陆地表层区域变动幅度与速率[J]. 科学通报,2016-01-01,61(19):22-32
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