globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5719128
论文题名:
我国能源活动CO_2排放在2020-2022年之间达到峰值情景和可行性研究
其他题名: Scenario and Feasibility Study for Peaking CO_2 Emission from Energy Activities in China
作者: 姜克隽1; 贺晨旻2; 庄幸1; 刘嘉3; 高霁4; 徐向阳5; 陈莎6
刊名: 气候变化研究进展
ISSN: 1673-1719
出版年: 2016
卷: 12, 期:3, 页码:232-241
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 排放情景 ; 温室气体 ; 能源,峰值 ; 2 ℃温升目标
英文关键词: emission scenario ; GHGs ; energy ; peaking emission ; 2 ℃ target
WOS学科分类: ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
中文摘要: 全球到2100年实现将温度上升控制在和工业化前相比2℃以内,已经成为一个政策目标。本文结合中国能源环境政策综合评估(IPAC)模型的近期研究结果,分析了实现全球2℃温升目标下我国能源活动的CO_2排放情景,并对其关键因素进行研究,得到实现这些情景的可行性。研究表明,考虑到我国经济转型、能源效率提升、可再生能源和核电的发展、碳捕获和碳封存技术,以及低碳生活方式的转变,我国能源活动的CO_2排放是可以在2025年之前,甚至更早(如在2020-2022年)实现排放峰值,峰值总量在90亿t左右,之后开始下降,这和我国在全球2 ℃温升目标情景中给予的碳空间相一致,支持我国未来在全球温室气体减排中的国际合作路径,以及国内低碳发展政策的制定。实现这样的减排路径,需要在既有的环境和能源政策之外制定针对气候变化减缓的明确和长期的政策,如碳定价。
英文摘要: To control the temperature increase to be limited under 2 ℃ in 2100 compared with that in pre-industrialization period, became a international target for policy-making. This study presents the modeling analysis results from IPAC model, on emission scenarios for CO_2 from energy activities, and analyzes key factors in the scenarios, to understand the feasibility to reach the pathway. It concludes CO_2 emission from energy activities could peak in 2020-2022,which could be driven by economic structure transformation, energy efficiency improvement, development of renewable energy and nuclear energy, carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology diffusion, and low-carbon life style changes. The peaking amount of CO_2 would be around 9 billion tons, and start to decrease after that, which could match with the emission pathway for China to following the global 2 ℃ emission pathway. This could be used in the domestic policy-making process and international collaboration. In order to implement this emission pathway, it is essential to make further climate change oriented policies such as carbon pricing, besides the existing environment and energy policies.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/151180
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.国家发展与改革委员会能源研究所, 北京 100038, 中国
2.北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 北京 100871, 中国
3.北京人木咨询有限公司, 北京 100038, 中国
4.中国农业科学研究院, 北京 100081, 中国
5.中国矿业大学(北京), 北京 100083, 中国
6.北京工业大学, 北京 100124, 中国

Recommended Citation:
姜克隽,贺晨旻,庄幸,等. 我国能源活动CO_2排放在2020-2022年之间达到峰值情景和可行性研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展,2016-01-01,12(3):232-241
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