globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5893193
论文题名:
未来气候变化对我国特有濒危动物黑麂适宜生境的潜在影响
其他题名: Potential effects of future climate change on suitable habitat of Muntiacus crinifrons, an endangered and endemic species in China
作者: 雷军成1; 王莎2; 王军围3; 吴军4
刊名: 生物多样性
ISSN: 1005-0094
出版年: 2016
卷: 24, 期:12, 页码:2499-2508
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 鹿科 ; 气候情景 ; 物种分布模型 ; 生境 ; 保护
英文关键词: Cervidae ; climate scenario ; species distribution model ; habitat ; conservation
WOS学科分类: BIOLOGY
WOS研究方向: Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics
中文摘要: 了解气候变化情景下野生动物适宜生境的可能变化,对未来有关保护策略的制定具有重要意义。本研究利用20世纪60年代至今记录的黑麂(Muntiacus crinifrons)分布数据和9种物种分布模型,模拟了两种温室气体浓度情景(RCP2.6和RCP8.5)下未来两个时期(2050s和2080s)黑麂的适宜生境。结果表明,到2050s和2080s:(1)在RCP2.6情景下,黑麂适宜生境面积相对于基准气候条件下将分别减少11.9%和6.2%,而在RCP8.5情景下,则分别减少36.9%和52.0%;(2)在RCP2.6情景下,黑麂适宜生境中的核心区域景观面积相对于基准气候条件将分别减少20.5%和10.5%,而在RCP8.5情景下,则分别减少55.2%和65.2%;(3)在RCP2.6情景下,稳定不变适宜生境的面积占基准气候条件下适宜生境面积的比例分别为75.1%和84.2%,而在RCP8.5情景下,分别为48.3%和35.8%。总体而言,在RCP2.6情景下,与基准气候条件下相比气候变化对黑麂适宜生境的影响并不显著,而在RCP8.5情景下则较为显著,主要表现为适宜生境面积和适宜生境中核心区域景观的面积明显减少,不变适宜生境面积占基准气候条件下适宜生境面积的比例大幅度降低。建议未来加强浙江、安徽、江西三省交界地区黑麂适宜生境的保护,建立黑麂保护区之间的廊道。
英文摘要: Understanding the possible changes of suitable habitats for wild animals in the context of climate change has important implications for creating relevant conservation policies in the future. Based on presence records of black muntjac (Muntiacus crinifrons), which were recorded from 1960s to current day, and nine species distribution models, we simulated black muntjac's suitable habitat under the future climate scenarios. Future climate scenarios were derived from two greenhouse gas concentrations scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), and two future time slices (2050s and 2080s). Results show that, by the 2050s and 2080s, under the scenario of RCP2.6, areas of the suitable habitat of black muntjac will decrease by 11.9% and 6.2%, respectively, while under the scenario of RCP8.5, they will decrease by 36.9% and 52.0%, respectively. Under the scenario of RCP2.6, the areas of core' landscape for the suitable habitat of black muntjac will decrease by 20.5% and 10.5%, while under the scenario of RCP8.5, they will decrease by 55.2% and 65.2%, respectively. Under the scenario of RCP2.6, the proportion of stable suitable habitat to the suitable habitat under baseline climate conditions are 75.1% and 84.2%, while under the scenario of RCP8.5, they are 48.3% and 35.8%, respectively. In general, using the scenario with RCP2.6, the effects of future climate change on suitable habitat of black muntjac are minimal. In contrast, under the scenario of RCP8.5, the future climate will have drastic effects on suitable habitat for black muntjac. In particular, the area of suitable habitat and its core' landscape will significantly decrease, and so will the proportion of stable suitable habitat to the suitable habitat under baseline climate conditions. Therefore, we propose to conserve suitable habitat for black muntjac in the border area of Zhejiang, Anhui, and Jiangxi provinces, and to build corridors to connect different nature reserves for black muntjac.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/151456
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.赣南师范大学地理与规划学院, 赣州, 江西 341000, 中国
2.赣南师范大学化学化工学院, 赣州, 江西 341000, 中国
3.江苏第二师范学院美术学院, 南京, 江苏 210013, 中国
4.环境保护部南京环境科学研究所, 南京, 江苏 210042, 中国

Recommended Citation:
雷军成,王莎,王军围,等. 未来气候变化对我国特有濒危动物黑麂适宜生境的潜在影响[J]. 生物多样性,2016-01-01,24(12):2499-2508
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