globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5781038
论文题名:
淮河流域近50年来气候变化及突变分析
其他题名: Analysis of Climate Change and Mutation in Huaihe River Basin during Last 50 Years
作者: 陆阳1; 尹剑2; 邹逸江1; 杨宁1; 刘康3
刊名: 世界科技研究与发展
ISSN: 1006-6055
出版年: 2016
卷: 38, 期:4, 页码:251-253
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 淮河流域 ; 气候变化 ; M-K法 ; R/S法
英文关键词: Huaihe river basin ; climate change ; M-K method ; R/S method
WOS学科分类: GEOGRAPHY
WOS研究方向: Geography
中文摘要: 基于淮河流域1961 ~ 2015年的主要气象数据,采用趋势分析、M-K检验和R/S方法,对淮河流域的气温、降水和日照时数3个要素的时间序列进行趋势分析和突变点检验,结果显示: ①淮河流域多年平均气温在时间上呈现明显突变上升趋势,其中大部分站点气温突变出现在20世纪90年代;流域南部的气温上升程度高于北部地区;从整个流域的Hurst指数分析来看,未来淮河流域的年平均气温仍将持续升高,但上升程度不显著。②淮河流域的年降水量在时间上呈现一定的减少趋势,并且发生多次降水突变现象;各站点的降水量变化不大,但均出现多次突变情况;从Hurst指数来看,流域未来的年平均降水量有上升趋势。③流域的年平均日照时数呈现下降趋势,但变化并不显著; 各站点均出现明显的日照时数下降现象; 从Hurst指数来看,流域未来的日照时数将继续下降。
英文摘要: Meteorological data from 1961 to 2015 in Huaihe river were used to analyze time series trend of temperature,precipitation and sunshine duration in Huaihe river basin by the M-K and R/S method, then point mutations were calculated. It was found that: ①The average annual temperature of Huaihe river showed a rising trend with a statistical significance, and most of these sites'temperature mutations appeared in the 1990s; the temperature rise in the south of the basin is higher than that in the north region; viewed from the Hurst exponent, the future average annual temperature of the Huaihe river will be continued to rise with no significance. ②The Huaihe river basin's average annual precipitation showed a decreasing trend and multiple precipitation mutations occurred in the time; the precipitation of each site changed with no statistical significance,but all appeared multiple mutations; from Hurst exponent, the future of the basin average annual precipitation will occur rise situation. ③The average annual sunshine duration in Huaihe river basin showed a trend of decline,but the change was not significant; from the spatial distribution, each sites had declined significantly; from the point of Hurst index, the average annual sunshine duration in the future will continue to decline.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/151468
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.宁波大学地理与空间信息技术系, 宁波, 浙江 315211, 中国
2.安庆师范大学资源环境学院, 安庆, 安徽 246011, 中国
3.湖北省测绘工程院, 武汉, 湖北 430074, 中国

Recommended Citation:
陆阳,尹剑,邹逸江,等. 淮河流域近50年来气候变化及突变分析[J]. 世界科技研究与发展,2016-01-01,38(4):251-253
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