globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5623851
论文题名:
基于非一致性水文序列的水库极限防洪风险复核分析
其他题名: Recheck analysis of reservoir extreme flood control risk using inconsistent hydrological sequences
作者: 黄凯; 冯平
刊名: 水力发电学报
ISSN: 1003-1243
出版年: 2016
卷: 35, 期:1, 页码:25-29
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 频率分析 ; 非一致性 ; 变异点 ; 防洪风险率
英文关键词: frequency analysis ; inconsistency ; change point ; flood risk
WOS学科分类: GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Geology
中文摘要: 随着气候变化、人类活动影响的加剧,水文序列一致性条件遭到破坏。本文选择下垫面变化剧烈的西大洋水库控制流域为研究区域,采用水文变异诊断系统,分析其年最大洪峰流量序列的变化趋势及变异点,确定序列变异形式;根据非一致性水文序列频率分析方法,分别得到过去条件下、现在条件下的洪峰流量序列以及相应频率的设计值;以西大洋水库校核洪水位为极限防洪风险控制指标,采用频率分析法,分别计算出过去条件下极限防洪风险率为0.00769%,现在条件下极限风险率为0.00508%。显然,无论是过去还是现在条件下,复核后的西大洋水库的极限防洪风险率均小于现有的万年一遇校核标准(0.01%),计算结果可以为西大洋水库实行动态汛限水位控制,充分利用汛期洪水资源,提高水库的综合效益等方面提供理论指导。
英文摘要: The consistency of hydrological sequences was lost due to climate change and human activities. To conduct a recheck analysis on extreme flood control risk using inconsistent hydrological sequences, we selected as the study area the watershed of the Xidayang reservoir that was subjected to significant changes in land surface conditions, and applied the hydrological variation diagnosis system to an annual maximum peak flow series of this reservoir to detect its change trend, change point, and type of change. Then, a frequency analysis method for inconsistent hydrological series was developed to calculate this peak flow series for the past and current land surface conditions, and hence the corresponding design peak flows of different frequencies was obtained. Finally, we took the check flood level of the reservoir as the control index on its extreme flood control risk and estimated this extreme risk using the frequency analysis method. The calculations reveal that for the past and current land surface conditions the extreme risks were 0.008% and 0.005%, respectively. It is obvious that these rechecked extreme risk values are lower than the check flood criterion, i.e. a 10000-year flood (0.01%). The results provide technical guidance for the Xidayang reservoir with respect to its dynamic flood level control, full utilization of flood resource in flood season, and improvement of comprehensive benefits.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/151488
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 天津大学, 水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室, 天津 300072, 中国

Recommended Citation:
黄凯,冯平. 基于非一致性水文序列的水库极限防洪风险复核分析[J]. 水力发电学报,2016-01-01,35(1):25-29
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