globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5655595
论文题名:
滦河流域气候变化的水文响应研究
其他题名: Hydrological Response to Climate Change in Luanhe River Basin
作者: 史晓亮1; 杨志勇2; 吕杰1; 刘峰1
刊名: 水土保持研究
ISSN: 1005-3409
出版年: 2016
卷: 23, 期:2, 页码:256-266
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; SWAT模型 ; 径流 ; 滦河流域
英文关键词: climate change ; SWAT model ; runoff ; Luanhe River Basin
WOS学科分类: GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY ; METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 以滦河流域为研究区,基于未来气候变化研究成果建立了16种气候变化情景,结合SWAT分布式水文模型模拟了不同气候变化情景下的水文过程,对滦河流域气候变化的水文响应进行了分析。结果表明:SWAT模型可以较好地模拟滦河流域的月流量过程,在研究区具有较好的适用性;流域气温升高将会导致蒸发量增加、径流减少。在以升温为主、降水变化存在很大不确定性的情况下,滦河流域径流量可能进一步衰减。在未来降水增加的情况下,流域年均地表径流增加趋势的空间差异显著,尤其是流域下游的迁西县等地增加幅度超过12 mm,研究结果将为变化环境下滦河流域的水资源管理提供参考。
英文摘要: Taking the Luanhe River Basin as the research area, we constructed a total of sixteen climate change scenarios on the basis of the previous studies in the context of future climate change in Haihe River Basin. With the distributed hydrological model of SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), the monthly streamflow in the study area was simulated,and the hydrological response to climate change was evaluated. The results showed that the calibrated SWAT model was able to well simulate the monthly flows and thus extensively applicable in the Luanhe River Basin. Besides,temperature rising might resulted in increased e-vaporation and decreased runoff. Therefore,the runoff in the Luanhe River Basin could be further deteriorating under the changing climate that is characterized by rising in temperature and the uncertainty in precipitation trends. Under the climate scenario with increased precipitation, the increase trend of average annual surface runoff had significantly spatial variability, especially in the downstream of the basin, including Qianxi County etc. The results would be greatly helpful for providing some references for water resources management under the changing environment in Luanhe River Basin.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/151540
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.西安科技大学测绘科学与技术学院, 西安, 陕西 710054, 中国
2.中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所, 北京 100038, 中国

Recommended Citation:
史晓亮,杨志勇,吕杰,等. 滦河流域气候变化的水文响应研究[J]. 水土保持研究,2016-01-01,23(2):256-266
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