globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5854297
论文题名:
云南50年降水均一性与变化趋势分析
其他题名: An analysis of homogeneity and changing trend of precipitation in the past fifty years in Yunnan
作者: 刘苈今1; 张万诚2; 陈艳2; 马涛2
刊名: 云南大学学报. 自然科学版
ISSN: 0258-7971
出版年: 2016
卷: 38, 期:6, 页码:27-32
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 云南降水 ; 均一性 ; 统计检验 ; 订正 ; 变化趋势
英文关键词: Yunnan precipitation ; homogeneity ; stastical test ; correction ; variation trend
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 均一的观测资料是气候变化研究的基础,对于研究和评估气候变化特征尤为重要.选取全省国家级地面观测台站50年的年降水资料,采用标准正态检验(SNHT)、惩罚最大T检验(PMT)、秩检验(Mann-Kendall)方法进行均一性检验.结果表明云南年降水序列均存在非均一的情况.用SNHT比值和分位数匹配(QM)2种订正方法对检验结果进行均一性订正,并初步分析了订正前后云南50年降水量的线性变化特征.分析表明,订正前后年降水量空间分布特征总体不变,但是局部存在差异,均一性订正消除了突变趋势,使订正后的年平均降水量的变化趋势及分布更为合理.
英文摘要: Homogeneous climate series is the basis especially for conducting and researching the characteristics of climate change.This paper has applied methods of standard normal test (SNHT),penalized maximal T test (PMT) and rank test (Mann -Kendall) study of annual precipitation homogeneity of Yunnan national level ground observing stations in the past fifty years.The result shows there are existing non-uniform sequences in annual precipitations.We have researched SNHT ratio correction and matching (QM) correction methods correct testing results and analyzed rainfall variation characteristics of Yunnan in the past 50 years and after correction in a preliminary analysis.It shows before and after adjustment,annual precipitation spatial distribution remain more or less the same,but there still exit differences in local area.After correction, the mutation trend has been eliminated and the variation trend and distribution of average annual rainfall have become more reasonable.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/151750
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.云南大学大气科学系, 昆明, 云南 650091, 中国
2.云南省气象科学研究所, 昆明, 云南 650034, 中国

Recommended Citation:
刘苈今,张万诚,陈艳,等. 云南50年降水均一性与变化趋势分析[J]. 云南大学学报. 自然科学版,2016-01-01,38(6):27-32
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