globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6167004
论文题名:
全球升温控制在1.5 ℃和2.0 ℃时中国分省人口格局
其他题名: The Population Patterns over China Under the 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃ Warming Targets
作者: 王艳君1; 景丞1; 曹丽格2; 姜彤1; 孙赫敏1; 黄金龙3; 翟建青1; 陶辉3; 高超4; 苏布达5
刊名: 气候变化研究进展
ISSN: 1673-1719
出版年: 2017
卷: 13, 期:4, 页码:3776-3786
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 全球升温1.5 ℃和2.0 ℃ ; 共享社会经济路径(SSPs) ; 人口预估 ; 分省 ; 中国
英文关键词: global warming of 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃ ; shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) ; population patterns ; provinces ; China
WOS学科分类: SOCIOLOGY
WOS研究方向: Sociology
中文摘要: 《巴黎协定》正式生效,为国际社会应对气候变化提出新的机遇与挑战,也必将对中国人口、资源和环境带来重要影响。本文结合IPCC发布的可持续发展(SSP1)、中度发展(SSP2)、局部或不一致发展(SSP3)、不均衡发展(SSP4)、常规发展(SSP5)5种共享社会经济路径,以2010年中国第六次人口普查数据为基准,综合考虑人口现状和发展政策设定不同发展路径下各省人口模型的相关参数,在全球升温控制在1.5 ℃和2.0 ℃时,对比研究中国和各省分年龄、性别、教育水平的人口演变和分布特征。结果表明:(1)全球升温1.5 ℃时,SSP1和SSP4路径下总人口较2010年增加0.44亿人;升温2.0 ℃时,SSP2和SSP3路径下较2010年分别增加0.23亿和0.67亿人,SSP5路径下减少约0.12亿人。5种路径下中国人口将在20252035年达到峰值,人口峰值正处于全球升温1.5 ℃期间。(2)全球升温1.5 ℃时,除了东北地区和四川、安徽省外,多数省(市)人口均较2010年有所增加;升温2.0 ℃时,西北、西南和以东南沿海地区为主的发达省份保持较高的人口增量,其他地区人口开始呈减少趋势。(3)在全球升温1.5 ℃和2.0 ℃期间,大部分省份人口达到峰值,其中SSP3路径下广西人口最多,可达1.13亿,其他路径下广东省人口最多,达1.53亿。(4)未来中国65岁以上老龄人口比重呈现东北高、西南低的分布特征。与全球升温1.5 ℃相比,升温2.0 ℃时的老龄化趋势进一步加重,东北地区老龄化问题最严重。采用绿色和可持续发展路径,全球升温控制在2.0 ℃之内是中国社会经济发展的科学选择。
英文摘要: The Paris Agreement presents new challenges for the international community to address climate change, it also has a massive impact on China's population, resources and environment under the background of global warming. Based on the 6th national census data in 2010, the shared socioeconomic pathways of IPCC and the population status and development policy in China were jointly considered to calibrate the parameters of population model. In this paper, the evolution and distribution of population in China by age, gender and education level are analyzed under global warming 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃ targets. The research results show as follows: under global warming 1.5 ℃, the total population will increase by 44 million compared with 2010 under SSP1 and SSP4; under warming 2.0 ℃, the population will increase by 23 million and 67 million compared with 2010 under SSP2 and SSP3 respectively, and decrease by 12 million under SSP5. China's population will peak in 2025-2035, the time period of 1.5 ℃ warming. Except the Northeast China, Sichuan and Anhui provinces, the majority of the provinces will have an increase in population compared with 2010 under warming 1.5 ℃; under global warming 2.0 ℃, population will increase in northwest, southwest and southeast coastal areas of China. In other parts of China the population will decrease. Population in most provinces will reach peak under global warming 1.5-2.0 ℃. Guangxi province will have the largest population under SSP3, up to 113 million. Guangdong province will have the largest population under all other pathways, up to 153 million. The proportion of elderly population over 65 will be higher in northeast than southwest of China. Under warming 1.5 ℃, the proportion of elderly population will reach 20% under SSP1 and SSP4. Comparing with warming 1.5 ℃, the aging trend will be further aggravated under warming 2.0 ℃. The proportion of elderly population will reach 36% under SSP5. Northeast China will face the most serious problem of aging. Pursue the target of limiting global warming well below 2.0 ℃ by adopting the green and sustainable development pathways (SSP1) is the scientific choice of future socioeconomic development strategy in China.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/152802
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.南京信息工程大学, 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 南京, 江苏 210044, 中国
2.中国气象局国家气候中心, 北京 100081, 中国
3.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830011, 中国
4.宁波大学建筑工程与环境学院, 宁波, 浙江 315211, 中国
5.南京信息工程大学, 荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室
6.气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 南京, 江苏 210044, 中国

Recommended Citation:
王艳君,景丞,曹丽格,等. 全球升温控制在1.5 ℃和2.0 ℃时中国分省人口格局[J]. 气候变化研究进展,2017-01-01,13(4):3776-3786
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