globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6165013
论文题名:
基于中国TIMES模型的碳排放达峰路径
其他题名: China's carbon emissions peak path -based on China TIMES model
作者: 马丁; 陈文颖
刊名: 清华大学学报. 自然科学版
ISSN: 1000-0054
出版年: 2017
卷: 57, 期:10, 页码:3823-3836
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; 能源系统模型 ; 碳排放达峰 ; 潜力分解
英文关键词: climate change ; energy system model ; carbon emission peak ; emission reduction potential decomposition
WOS学科分类: ECONOMICS
WOS研究方向: Business & Economics
中文摘要: 该文以中国能源系统优化模型(China TIMES)为基础, 构建了碳排放达峰路径模型体系, 分析了中国未来可能的碳排放峰值水平和达峰路径, 综合评估了各部门及各项措施的碳减排贡献。 结果表明: 在参考情景下, 中国的能源消费与碳排放在2010-2050年间将持续增长, 对能源安全和应对气候变化带来严峻挑战; 在达峰情景下, 通过发展非化石能源和推广高耗能工业的节能减排技术, 使得电力、工业和高耗能工业部门分阶段地实现碳排放达峰, 进而实现2030年碳排放峰值达100亿~108亿t; 电力和工业部门是碳减排的关键部门, 二者在2030年的减排贡献分别达到75%和15%; 发展非化石能源和提高高耗能工业的能效是碳减排的关键措施, 二者在2030年的减排贡献分别达到65%和15%。
英文摘要: In this study, an integrated carbon emission peak path model system was built based on China TIMES model, and was used to analyze China's carbon emissions peak and peak path. The results show that China's carbon emissions will maintain rapid growth in the reference scenario between 2010-2050, and give enormous pressure on China's energy security and addressing climate change; in emission peak scenarios, through the development of non-fossil energy and the adoption of energy-conservation and emission-reduction measures, carbon-intensive sectors (power and industry sectors) can achieve early emissions peak and guarantee the overall carbon emissions peak between 10.0-10.8 billion t; power sector and energy-intensive sectors are the main carbon mitigation sectors, the contribution of carbon mitigation are 75% and 15%, respectively. In addition, adopting non-fossil energy and the energy-efficient technologies are main carbon mitigation measures, and the contribution of carbon mitigation are 65% and 15%, respectively.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/152841
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 清华大学现代管理研究中心, 北京 100084, 中国

Recommended Citation:
马丁,陈文颖. 基于中国TIMES模型的碳排放达峰路径[J]. 清华大学学报. 自然科学版,2017-01-01,57(10):3823-3836
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