globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5897113
论文题名:
基于MaxEnt模型预测细叶小羽藓在中国的潜在分布区
其他题名: Predication of potential distribution of Haplocladium microphyllum in China based on MaxEnt model
作者: 毛俐慧; 李垚; 刘畅; 方炎明
刊名: 生态学杂志
ISSN: 1000-4890
出版年: 2017
卷: 36, 期:1, 页码:40-50
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 适生区 ; 气候变化 ; 环境因子
英文关键词: suitable growth region ; climate change ; environmental factors
WOS学科分类: PLANT SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Plant Sciences
中文摘要: 应用MaxEnt模型、ArcGIS 10.0和DIVA-GIS 7.5软件,基于96个地理分布记录,预测了细叶小羽藓在末次盛冰期、当代和2070年的潜在分布区。MaxEnt模型模拟当代潜在分布区准确度极高,受试者工作特征曲线下的面积(AUC值)达0.94。当代细叶小羽藓的最适分布区在四川盆地和长江中下游平原。相较于当代的分布,末次盛冰期时该物种的适生区局限在35° N以南,而未来(2070年)的分布范围呈现西进北扩的趋势。Jackknife检验表明,影响细叶小羽藓分布的最主要环境因子(阈值)是年均温(-0.97 ~22.86 ℃)、年均降水量(445~2238 mm)和最干月降水量(1~93 mm)。
英文摘要: Based on 96 distributional records of Haplocladium microphyllum in China,we predicted the potential distribution of this species in China in different periods,e.g. last glacial maximum (LGM,21 ka BP), at present and in 2070 by using MaxEnt model,ArcGIS 10.0 and DIVA- GIS 7.5 software. The results showed that the accuracy of MaxEnt model was pretty high for modeling present potential distribution regions,and the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) reached 0.94. The ideal regions for the present distribution include Sichuan Basin and the middle-lower Yangtze Plain. Compared to the present distribution,the distribution of this species was smaller in LGM,and was restricted in the south of 35° N. On the other hand, the distribution region will be extended northward and westward in 2070. Jackknife test showed that the major factors (threshold) contributing to the potential distribution were annual mean temperature (-0.97 to 22.86 ℃), annual precipitation (445-2238 mm) and precipitation of the driest month (1-93 mm).
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/153056
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 南京林业大学, 南方现代林业协同创新中心, 南京, 江苏 210037, 中国

Recommended Citation:
毛俐慧,李垚,刘畅,等. 基于MaxEnt模型预测细叶小羽藓在中国的潜在分布区[J]. 生态学杂志,2017-01-01,36(1):40-50
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