In order to understand the impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources,the established SWAT model in the Qinhuai River basin was used,the SWAT-CUP was used for the sensitivity analysis,calibration and validations of model parameters; runoff and actual evapotranspiration change in response to rainfall and temperature change were analyzed with assuming method to design future climate scenarios. The results indicated that: the SWAT model had high precision in monthly runoff simulation, and it can be used for researching hydrological response of the Qinhuai River basin under climate change; the declined temperature or increased precipitation would lead to increased runoff in the basin, on the contrary the runoff decreased; the actual evapotranspiration and precipitation were positively correlated, while the response of actual evapotranspiration to the change of temperature was not obvious; the runoff response to rainfall change was more stronger in the normal year,the runoff response to temperature change was more stronger in the dry year; and the actual evapotranspiration response to the rainfall change was more stronger in the dry year.