globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5941356
论文题名:
绿色低碳背景下中国产业结构调整分析
其他题名: China's structural adjustment under green and low-carbon development
作者: 张恪渝1; 廖明球2; 杨军1
刊名: 中国人口·资源与环境
ISSN: 1002-2104
出版年: 2017
卷: 27, 期:3, 页码:4735-4743
语种: 中文
中文关键词: I-0表 ; 优化模型 ; 产业结构调整 ; 碳排潜力
英文关键词: I-O table ; optimization problem ; industrial structure ; potential carbon emissions
WOS学科分类: ECONOMICS
WOS研究方向: Business & Economics
中文摘要: 中国作为世界第一的一次能源消费国以及最大的二氧化碳排放国,在巴黎世界气候大会上承诺于2030年以前单位碳强度较2005年降低60%-65%;此外,在《十三五规划纲要》中中国政府也明确提出,在十三五时期,碳排放强度较2005年基础上降低40%-45%的目标。在此背景下,本文基于最新的投入产出表构建了产业结构优化模型。通过行业的生产结构矩阵,构建出行业的能源结构消耗矩阵及碳排结构矩阵,旨在能源消耗量与二氧化碳排放量的双重约束下,得到中国2020年最优的产业结构调整方案,并计算了基于现有科技水平下中国最大的碳排潜力。线性规划的结果显示: ①中国2020年最优的产业结构调整方案可以满足国民经济总产出量最大化的目标,年均增长约为8%;且相比目标年份(2005年)二氧化碳强度下降46.93%,能源强度下降26.04%,达到十三五规划中的气候变化目标。在保证经济最低增速(6.5%)的前提下,中国二氧化碳的排放总量可以比优化方案再多下降约14%。②建筑业、交通运输及仓储业仍然是中国重要的支柱产业,在国民经济整体的占比份额仍需扩大。③从生产的角度看,中国产业结构必须全面向第三产业服务业转型,全面提高国民经济中第三产业的比重,尤其是加大生活服务业类部门的产出量。④为了满足绿色、低碳的约束限制,半数以上的二产部门的生产规模都应有所降低,尤其是能源部门和金属加工业部门。
英文摘要: As the world's biggest energy consumer and CO_2 emitter,China commits,on the Paris Climate Change Negotiation,to reduce carbon intensity of GDP by around 60% to 65% between 2005 and 2030. In addition,Chinese government's Thirteenth Five Year Plan (13th FYP) aims to reduce emissions intensity of GDP by 40% to 45% cent between 2005 and 2020. Given these targets, and by using the most recent input-output table,the current study constructs a sector structure optimization (SSO) model. Authors derive the optimal sectoral structure subject to the constraints of total energy use and total CO_2 emissions. Authors also estimate the maximum emissions potential at the current technological level. Results from linear programming show that: ① the optimal sectoral structure satisfies the upper limit of China's GDP growth target with an annual average growth rate of 8%. Under the optimal structure, between 2005 and 2020,emissions intensity and energy intensity falls by 46.93% and 26.04% respectively,both reaching the 13th FYP targets. China's total emissions could fall further by about 14% under the premise that China's GDP grows at the lower limit rate of 6.5% per annum. ② The construction and transportation and storage sectors will remain vital and their shares in GDP should still increase. ③ Regarding the production structure,it must shift towards the services sector. The share of the services sector should increase,especially that of the residential services. ④ Under the'green and low-carbon'constraints,more than half of the industry sectors'production scales should fall,especially the energy and mineral processing industries.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/153543
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院, 北京 100029, 中国
2.首都经济贸易大学经济学院, 北京 100070, 中国

Recommended Citation:
张恪渝,廖明球,杨军. 绿色低碳背景下中国产业结构调整分析[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境,2017-01-01,27(3):4735-4743
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