globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6243867
论文题名:
气候变化下中国未来综合环境风险区划研究
其他题名: Regionalization of Integrated Environmental Risk of China Under Future Climate Change
作者: 刘星才1; 汤秋鸿1; 尹圆圆1; 徐新创2
刊名: 地理科学
ISSN: 1000-0690
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期:4, 页码:517-525
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 综合环境风险 ; 气候变化 ; 综合区划
英文关键词: integrated environmental risk ; climate change ; integrated regionalization
WOS学科分类: GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Geology
中文摘要: 综合环境风险区划是变化环境下开展综合防灾减灾工作的基础,对于综合风险防范措施的制定具有指导意义。以农业、生态和人群3个系统为主要受灾体,从作物产量、生态系统变迁、高温热浪对人群的影响3个方面综合评估了4种典型浓度路径(Representative Concentration Pathways)RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0和RCP8.5情景下21世纪末期(2071~2099年)的中国综合环境风险,并以RCP8.5情景为例编制了未来综合环境风险区划。结果表明,该时期中国综合环境风险主要出现在黄淮海地区、华南部分地区和青藏高原部分地区。综合环境风险区划共分为6个一级区和43个二级区;一级区分别为西北低风险区、东北生态较低风险区、青藏高原生态中度风险区、晋陕生态-农业中度风险区、华南农业高风险区、黄淮海农业-热浪高风险区。
英文摘要: Environmental risks, such as crop failure, mortality and vegetation deterioration caused by warming, drought, flood, heatwave, etc., tend to be more complex and interactive with each other. Integrated Environmental Risk Regionalization becomes the fundament for multi-hazard prevention and reduction under a changing environment. Regarding potential large losses from the agricultural system, ecosystem, and human being caused by climate change, we assessed the integrated environmental risk based on the crop yield changes, ecosystem shift and mortality by heatwave in China during the late 21st century (2071-2099) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). Bias-corrected projections of future climate change were derived from five generic circulation model. Four major crops (rice, wheat, maize, and soybean) were considered, and the crop yield changes were projected by four global gridded crop models. The changes of crop yield during 2071-2099 compared to the period of 1980-2010 were computed to identify the risk in agricultural system. The Gamma metric was used to assess the risk of ecosystem shift under climate change. The Gamma metric describes the ecosystem state and its changes based on a set of macroscopic variables derived from four global gridded vegetation models. The larger Gamma, changes in ecosystem state variables, indicates the larger risk of ecosystem shift in future. A heatwave event was identified by three successive days of high temperature that >35 °C. The mortality rate caused by heatwave events was estimated by the difference of mortality rate in a period with high-temperature and that in non-high-temperature days of the year. Regression was established between heatwave events and mortality rates. It was then used for estimation of mortality rate in the 2071-2099 period. These environmental risks were combined by a multi-risk index (IERI) to illustrate the integrated environmental risk in the future. In this study, the same weights were set for all environmental risks in the IERI calculation. The IERI was calculated at a spatial resolution of 0.5° for the 2071-2099 period under the four RCPs. The results showed that high integrated environmental risks will appear in the Huang-Huai-Hai region, relatively high integrated environmental risks will appear in the South China, and moderate integrated environmental risks will occur in the Tibet region. The integrated environmental risk regions (IERR) were then delineated based on the assessment. Six IERRs were identified for China, i.e., Northwest-Low-Risk region, Northeast-Relatively-Low-Risk region, Tibet-Moderate-Risk region, Jin-Shaan-Moderate-Risk region, South-China-High-Risk region, and Huang-Huai-Hai-High-Risk region. Fourty-two sub regions were further divided upon the six IERRs. Due to largely different environmental conditions of the six IERRs, they include quite different numbers of sub regions, namely 2, 6, 8, 7, 10, and 9 subregions, respectively. Though many environmental risks caused by climate change were not included in this assessment, the preliminary integrated environmental risk regionalization would be a reference for decision makers and future studies.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/153834
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 中国科学院陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室, 北京 100101, 中国
2.湖北科技学院, 咸宁, 湖北 437100, 中国

Recommended Citation:
刘星才,汤秋鸿,尹圆圆,等. 气候变化下中国未来综合环境风险区划研究[J]. 地理科学,2018-01-01,38(4):517-525
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