Simulating the effect of climate change and human activities on the forest ecosystem in the hilly red soil region of southern China: A case study in Taihe county, Jiangxi province
The forest ecosystem structure, function, succession process and spatial pattern will change accordingly due to global climate change and anthropogenic disturbances. It is significant to explore dynamic change in forest landscape for the sustainable development of forest in the near future. Our study area is Taihe county of Jiangxi province. We combined a land- use change model (CA- Markov model), an ecosystem process model (PnET- II), and a forest landscape model (LANDIS- II) to simulate the change in forest area, aboveground biomass under climate change, land use, harvest and the combined scenario for the period 2010- 2050. The results show that: (1) Climate change has less impact on forest area in the study area. The forest area loss is reduced by the harvest treatment, and land use change leads to a more dramatic change in forest area. (2) The response of the coniferous forest to various disturbances show a difference compared to the broad- leaved forest. The coniferous forest responds more strongly to the harvest. (3) The method of coupling multiple model is benefit for the regional forest management. The simulation results can help to make some suggestions for improving and optimizing plantation structure and function in the hilly red soil region of southern China.