globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6293129
论文题名:
共享社会经济路径下中国各省城市化水平预测
其他题名: Provincial urbanization projected to 2050 under the shared socioeconomic pathways in China
作者: 丁小江1; 钟方雷2; 毛锦凰1; 宋晓谕3; 黄春林4
刊名: 气候变化研究进展
ISSN: 1673-1719
出版年: 2018
卷: 14, 期:4, 页码:621-633
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 共享社会经济路径(SSPs) ; Logistic模型 ; 城市化水平预测 ; 各省区 ; 中国
英文关键词: Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) ; Logistic model ; Urbanization projections ; Provincial level ; China
WOS学科分类: ECONOMICS
WOS研究方向: Business & Economics
中文摘要: 城市化水平预测与减缓及适应气候变化研究息息相关。基于国家统计局20052015年全国各省区城镇和乡村人口,以各省区2015年人均地区生产总值为指标进行分组,结合IPCC 5种共享社会经济路径(SSPs)的发展特征设置模型参数,运用Logistic模型预测了我国各省区20162050年城市化水平。结果表明,到2050年,各省区(除天津、北京、上海、西藏外)在5种典型SSPs下城市化水平收敛于75%左右。其中,SSP1、SSP3、SSP4、SSP5路径下,各省城市化水平比较趋同。而在SSP2路径下,全国总体上从东部到西部城市化程度逐渐降低,空间分布具有明显梯次递减性。5种SSPs路径下城市化速度方面,基本上呈现出中西部快而东部慢、西南快而东北慢的空间分布格局。同时,高收入省份不同路径下的城市化水平差别小,而中低收入省份的差别较大。
英文摘要: Urbanization is a key aspect of development that is relevant to studies of mitigation, adaptation to climate change, and its impacts. Based on the data of urban and rural population in 31 provinces of China published by the National Bureau of Statistics from 2005 to 2015 and the data of GDP per capita in each province in 2015, combined with the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) proposed by the IPCC and Logistic model, the levels of urbanization in 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China were projected from 2016 to 2050. This paper will be beneficial to the research of numerous uncertainties in the process of urbanization under different economic development pathways and be helpful for the decision making in different provinces. The results show that by 2050, the urbanization levels of all provinces (excluding Tianjin, Beijing, Shanghai and Tibet) under the five typical SSPs will converge to about 75%. Among them, under SSP1, SSP3, SSP4, and SSP5, the urbanization levels of all provinces will converge. Under SSP2, the overall urbanization level of the country from the east to the west will gradually decrease, and the spatial distribution of urbanization will have obvious step-down. In addition, under the SSPs, it basically shows that the urbanization of the west and the middle will be fast while the eastern slow and the spatial distribution pattern of the southwest is fast but the northeast is slow under SSPs. Differences across SSPs by 2050 may be small in the high-income region where the urbanization level is already high and the uncertainty in future urbanization trend is rather small. In contrast, many middle-income and low-income provinces are in the midst of the urbanization transition, with a big difference across the 5 pathways.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/154496
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.兰州大学经济学院, 兰州, 甘肃 730000, 中国
2.兰州大学经济学院
3.中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,
4.中国科学院内陆河流域生态水文重点实验室, 兰州
5.兰州,
6.730000
7.730000
8.中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
9.中国科学院资源环境科学信息中心, 中国科学院内陆河流域生态水文重点实验室
10., 兰州
11.兰州,
12.730000
13.730000
14.中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
15.中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院, 中国科学院黑河遥感试验研究站
16.甘肃省遥感重点实验室, 兰州
17.兰州,
18.730000
19.730000

Recommended Citation:
丁小江,钟方雷,毛锦凰,等. 共享社会经济路径下中国各省城市化水平预测[J]. 气候变化研究进展,2018-01-01,14(4):621-633
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[丁小江]'s Articles
[钟方雷]'s Articles
[毛锦凰]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[丁小江]'s Articles
[钟方雷]'s Articles
[毛锦凰]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[丁小江]‘s Articles
[钟方雷]‘s Articles
[毛锦凰]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.