globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6293130
论文题名:
未来气候变化背景下我国橡胶树寒害事件的变化特征
其他题名: Changes of chilling injury events on China's rubber tree under future climate change
作者: 李宁1; 白蕤2; 李玮1; 张蕾3; 易克贤4; 陈淼1; 陈歆1
刊名: 气候变化研究进展
ISSN: 1673-1719
出版年: 2018
卷: 14, 期:4, 页码:6225-6231
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 未来气候变化 ; 橡胶树 ; 寒害 ; 时空变化
英文关键词: Future climate change ; Rubber tree ; Chilling injury ; Spatio-temporal change
WOS学科分类: FORESTRY
WOS研究方向: Forestry
中文摘要: 利用19812010年历史气象数据和20312060年(RCP2.6和RCP8.5)气候情景数据,根据橡胶寒害等级指标,结合插值分析、提取分析和地图代数等空间分析方法,研究在未来气候情景下我国橡胶树寒害事件的变化特征。结果表明:(1) RCP2.6和RCP8.5气候情景下20312060年我国橡胶种植适宜区基本呈现寒害发生降低的趋势,其中次适宜区(III)和局部可植区(IV)的降低幅度较为明显,有向高一等级适宜区转化的趋势。(2)我国橡胶树寒害中心的纬度,由19812010年的22.5°~23.5°N向北移动至20312060年RCP2.6情景下的24.0°~24.5°N和RCP8.5情景下的23.5°~24.0°N。(3) 2种气候情景下,20312060年我国海南、广西、广东、福建等植胶区橡胶树寒害发生概率(较基准时段19812010年)主要呈现降低趋势,云南植胶区在2种气候情景下有明显的差异,表现为RCP2.6情景下,轻度和特重寒害呈现降低趋势,中度和重度寒害呈现增加趋势;RCP8.5情景下,轻度和重度寒害呈现降低趋势,中度和特重寒害呈现增加趋势。(4)对比2种气候情景较基准时段的变化情况,RCP2.6情景对橡胶树轻度和特重寒害影响较大,RCP8.5情景对橡胶树中度和重度寒害影响较大。
英文摘要: The changes of chilling injury events on China's rubber during 2031-2060 were analysed by spatial analyst with historical meteorological data in 1981-2010, future climate scenarios, industry standard of Rubber Chilling Grade (QX/T 169-2012). Future climate scenarios were HadGEM2-ES simulation with RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 emission pathways. The results show that the chilling injury events of rubber plantation would decrease in 2031-2060 under both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the sub suitable area (III) and the part suitable area (IV) would more highlight, and would move toward higher level suitable area. The latitude of chilling injury center was located from 22.5°N to 23.5°N during 1981-2010, and might move northward in both the RCP2.6 (24.0°-24.5°N) and the RCP8.5 (23.5°-24.0°N). The chilling injury events would reduce in future scenarios compare with the baseline, except Yunnan rubber plantation. There might be differences between two RCPs for Yunnan rubber plantation in the future, because in the RCP2.6 light and severe chilling injury would decrease, medium and heavy chilling injury would increase; but in the RCP8.5 light and heavy chilling injury would decrease, medium and severe chilling injury would increase. The research results can be valuable for defense of chilling injury on China's rubber and layout of rubber planting in the future. The RCP2.6, comparing the changes of the two RCPs over the baseline, would have more impact on light and sever chilling injury of rubber than RCP8.5, and would have less impact on medium and heavy chilling injury of rubber than RCP8.5.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/154497
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.中国热带农业科学院环境与植物保护研究所
2.农业部儋州农业环境科学观测实验站,
3.农业部儋州农业环境科学观测实验站, 海口
4.儋州,
5.571101
6.571737
7.海南省气象科学研究所, 海口, 海南 570203, 中国
8.中国气象局国家气象中心, 北京 100081, 中国
9.中国热带农业科学院环境与植物保护研究所, 海口, 海南 571101, 中国

Recommended Citation:
李宁,白蕤,李玮,等. 未来气候变化背景下我国橡胶树寒害事件的变化特征[J]. 气候变化研究进展,2018-01-01,14(4):6225-6231
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