globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6274940
论文题名:
气候变化对上海园林植物引种区的影响趋势预测
其他题名: Prediction of introduction provenance for Shanghai landscape plants in response to climate change
作者: 张德顺; 刘鸣; 刘晓萍; 路萍
刊名: 上海农业学报
ISSN: 1000-3924
出版年: 2018
卷: 34, 期:3, 页码:6355-6361
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; 模糊相似优先比 ; 区域植物 ; 园林植物
英文关键词: Climate change ; Fuzzy analogy preferred ratio ; Regional species ; Landscape plants
WOS学科分类: HORTICULTURE
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
中文摘要: 为探讨未来气候变化对上海园林植物的影响,科学合理地选择地域性植物种源地和增强上海园林绿化植物的适生性,选取北纬25°至35°之间的150个城市及其所在区域为研究对象,依据19702000年各地市气象资料中最低平均气温、最高平均气温、年均气温、年均降水量、太阳辐射量5个气候因子,并搜集整理近年来预测20302050年气候变化趋势的文献资料,利用欧式距离模糊相似优先比法,预测了与上海当今气候和未来气候相似的区域。结果表明:1)与上海当今气候相似的区域呈现明显的纬度地带性特征,聚类结果表现出较高的可靠性;2)随着未来气温的升高和降水的增强,上海地域性园林植物的核心引种区始终为太湖流域,但略向北偏移;3)次核心引种区由平行纬度分布将逐渐转变为垂直东南季风方向分布,且向东南方向偏移。该研究为应对未来气候变化的上海园林植物的引种最适区域提供了参考。
英文摘要: In order to explore the impacts of future climate change on the introduction zoning of landscape plants in Shanghai,150 cities and their areas between N 25° and N 35° were selected as the potential provenances. Based on the climate data from 19702000,such as annual minimum temperature (℃),annual maximum temperature(℃),annual average temperature(℃),annual precipitation(mm),solar radiation(kJ·d~(-1)·m~(-2) )as well as the recent literature data on the prediction of climate change trends in 20302050,the changing climate trends and differences between the selected cities and Shanghai were analyzed by the Euclidean distance fuzzy similarity method. The results show that:(1)The latitudinal distribution is found obviously in areas with similarity to Shanghai current climate,and the clustering results show high reliability;(2)With the increasing of future temperature and precipitation,the core introduction zone of landscape plants in Shanghai is always in the Taihu Lake Basin,but it will be slightly shifted northward. (3)The sub-distribution zone will gradually change from the parallel latitude distribution to the vertical distribution against southeast monsoon direction,and moving close to the southeast seacoast. These potential predictions and shifts could provide effective references in landscape plant introduction provenance in response to climate change for Shanghai.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/154568
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 同济大学建筑与城市规划学院, 上海 200092, 中国

Recommended Citation:
张德顺,刘鸣,刘晓萍,等. 气候变化对上海园林植物引种区的影响趋势预测[J]. 上海农业学报,2018-01-01,34(3):6355-6361
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